Expert opinion: COVID-19 vaccine rollout unlikely before fall 2021
But many experts surveyed also believe vaccine development will take
place at an accelerated rate

Date:
October 1, 2020
Source:
McGill University
Summary:
Experts working in the field of vaccine development tend to believe
that an effective vaccine is not likely to be available for the
general public before the fall of 2021. A new paper details the
results of a recent survey of 28 experts working in vaccinology.



FULL STORY ========================================================================== Experts working in the field of vaccine development tend to believe that
an effective vaccine is not likely to be available for the general public before the fall of 2021. In a paper published this week in the Journal
of General Internal Medicine, a McGill-led team published the results
of a recent survey of 28 experts working in vaccinology.


==========================================================================
The survey was carried out in late June 2020. The majority of those
surveyed were mostly Canadian or American academics with an average of
25 years of experience working in the field.

"Experts in our survey offered forecasts on vaccine development
that were generally less optimistic than the timeline of early 2021
offered by US public officials. In general they seem to believe that a
publicly available vaccine next summer is the best-case scenario with
the possibility that it may take until 2022," said Jonathan Kimmelman,
a James McGill professor and the director of the Biomedical Ethics Unit
at McGill University and the senior author on the paper.

Many experts also believe that there may be some false starts before an effective vaccine is available. "The experts we surveyed believe that
there is a 1 in 3 chance that the vaccine will receive a safety warning
label after approval, and a 4 in 10 chance that the first large field
study will not report efficacy," added Patrick Kane, the lead author,
who is a decision scientist and postdoctoral fellow at McGill University.

Predicting timelines for vaccine development Experts were asked to make timeline forecasts for three milestones in vaccine development. More specifically, experts were asked for their best, soonest, and latest
estimates for when each of the following milestone would occur:
1. Question: When will a vaccine be available to the general public in
the USA and/or Canada?


========================================================================== Answers:
* best guess = September/October 2021 (average) * soonest = June 2021
(average) * latest = July 2022 (average)
2. Question: When will a field study with at least 5000 participants
report results? Answers:
* best guess = March 2021 (average) * soonest = December 2020
(average) * latest = July 2021 (average)
3. Question: When will a vaccine be available to those at highest risk
from the virus in the USA and/or Canada? Answers:
* best guess = March/April 2021 (average) * soonest = February 2021
(average) * latest = December 2021 (average)
The researchers believe that this kind of approach, where people are
asked to suggest a range of responses provides a more complete picture
of the range of expert belief than media quotes from individuals.



========================================================================== Likelihood of setbacks The study also showed that about 1/3 of those
surveyed believe that vaccine development is likely to face may face
the following setbacks: 1. that the first vaccine widely deployed in
the USA and/or Canada will receive a boxed warning from the FDA to
highlight serious or life-threatening adverse reactions; or 2. that the
first large field trial in the USA and/or Canada will report a null or
negative result in terms of efficacy.

"Our study finds that experts are largely in agreement about the timeline
for a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine," says Stephen Broomell, an associate professor
at the Dietrich College of Humanities and Social Sciences, at Carnegie
Mellon University. "While this does not track with many overly optimistic government projections, it reflects a belief that researchers are indeed
on a faster pace to development compared to previous vaccines."

========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by McGill_University. Note: Content
may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Patrick Bodilly Kane, Hannah Moyer, Amanda MacPherson, Jesse
Papenburg,
Brian J Ward, Stephen B. Broomell, Jonathan Kimmelman. Expert
Forecasts of COVID-19 Vaccine Development Timelines. Journal of
General Internal Medicine, 2020; DOI: 10.1007/s11606-020-06244-9 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/10/201001133219.htm

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