Summer is off to an extreme startheres why

Date:
Fri, 16 Jun 2023 19:30:00 +0000

Description:
"There has never been any day in observed history where the entire North Atlantic has been nearly as warm as it is right now.". seksan Mongkhonkhamsao/Getty Images Blame climate change, El Nio, and a dose of bad luck. The post Summer is off to an extreme startheres why appeared first on Popular Science .

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"There has never been any day in observed history where the entire North Atlantic has been nearly as warm as it is right now.". seksan Mongkhonkhamsao/Getty Images

This story was originally published by Grist . Sign up for Grists weekly newsletter here .

It has been a chaotic start to the Northern Hemispheres danger season ,
those few months of the year that are accompanied by a parade of disasters. This years danger season already includes abnormally high sea-surface temperatures in the worlds oceans, catastrophic wildfires in Canada , and unusual flooding in California.

Experts say recent extremes are being influenced by a hodgepodge of distinct factors. Climate change is involved, but natural variations in global
weather, and an unfortunate dose of serendipity, are also at play.

Global warming itself hasnt suddenly accelerated this year, Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, said in a
live briefing on Monday. Part of whats going on is random bad luck.

Last week, the U.S. National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration announced that El Nio conditions above average sea-surface temperatures that spur higher-than-usual warmth in many parts of the world were officially present in the Pacific Ocean. The swing from La Nia, El Nios opposite extreme, to an El Nio means a much warmer year is in store for the entire globe. But the cycle, which is associated with extremes such as drought and severe storms, also has localized impacts. In eastern and southern Africa, the Horn of Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean, and parts of the Asia-Pacific region,
El Nio can spur famine, outbreaks of infectious disease , and heat stress.
The natural weather phenomenon may also be having an impact, Swain said, on record-breaking land surface temperatures in Canada that have helped to fuel its devastating fire season so far.

At the same time, scientists have been keeping tabs on a separate phenomenon unfolding in the Atlantic Ocean. Temperatures in the Atlantic hurricane
region have been anomalously high for three months now. They are currently 82 degrees Fahrenheit on average 35 percent higher than a prior record set in 2005 . Things began to look very unusual two months ago.
Today the charts need no commentary, they speak for themselves.
This is the Atlantic. https://t.co/P26XnJmKj6 pic.twitter.com/Xin8kUT3Fr Dr Thomas Smith (@DrTELS) June 10, 2023

There has never been any day in observed history where the entire North Atlantic has been nearly as warm as it is right now, Swain said. The rest of the Atlantic Basin the Gulf of Mexico and the Eastern Seaboard is also warmer than average, which means an active Atlantic hurricane season may be
on tap. Generally, El Nio suppresses hurricane activity in the Atlantic and leads to a more severe typhoon season in the Pacific, but above-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures may negate El Nios dampening effects and fuel big Atlantic hurricanes this year.

A third factor, a volcanic eruption that occurred at the beginning of 2022 in the southern Pacific Ocean, is also contributing to above-average global temperatures. Volcanic eruptions typically have a temporary cooling effect on the planet because they shoot soot and other sun-blocking particles into the air. But the Hunga TongaHunga Haapai eruption in the Tongan archipelago wasnt a typical volcanic eruption. This was a sub-oceanic, huge, massively
explosive eruption that essentially vaporized huge quantities of sea water, Swain said. The volcanos plume was so intense that it shot vaporized water into the stratosphere, where the vapor has been having a warming effect on
the planet.

All of this means were in for a period of accelerated warming due to the convergence of these factors. The good news is that the warming effect that
El Nio and the Hunga Tonga eruption are having on the planet is temporary. El Nio lasts between nine and 12 months and the vaporized water in the stratosphere will fade in a few years.

The bad news is that climate change, which experts say contributed to the formation of this years El Nio and may be behind the record-breaking ocean temperatures in the North Atlantic, is still churning in the background. It isnt going away anytime soon.

The long-term trend is not going to stop, Swain said. We are stair-stepping
up on our way to much warmer oceans and a much warmer climate.

This article originally appeared in Grist . Grist is a nonprofit,
independent media organization dedicated to telling stories of climate solutions and a just future. Learn more at Grist.org



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