Study finds dedicated clinics can reduce impact of flu pandemic

Date:
August 6, 2020
Source:
North Carolina State University
Summary:
A new study concludes that opening clinics dedicated specifically
to treating influenza can limit the number of people infected
and help to 'flatten the curve,' or reduce the peak prevalence
rate. While the work focused on influenza, the findings are
relevant for policymakers seeking ways to reduce impacts of the
ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.



FULL STORY ==========================================================================
A new study concludes that opening clinics dedicated specifically to
treating influenza can limit the number of people infected and help to
"flatten the curve," or reduce the peak prevalence rate. While the work
focused on influenza, the findings are relevant for policymakers seeking
ways to reduce impacts of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.


========================================================================== "Dedicated clinics would have less of an impact than interventions such
as vaccination, but at the statewide level, we're talking about cutting
the overall number of infections by six figures," says Julie Swann, corresponding author of a paper on the work. Swann is the department head
and A. Doug Allison Distinguished Professor of the Fitts Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering at North Carolina State University.

"And while our work here focused on the H1N1 strain of influenza, the
findings are useful as we grapple with how best to respond to COVID-19,"
Swann says.

"COVID-19 is more infectious than H1N1, and has a higher mortality
rate. So I would expect the effect of using dedicated clinics to be
larger for COVID-19." Swann and her collaborators were inspired to
do the study by the fact that some hospitals opened dedicated H1N1
clinics during the H1N1 influenza pandemic in 2009-2010. These clinics
focused exclusively on treating patients who were exhibiting symptoms
of H1N1. There was some question at the time as to whether these clinics
were a good use of limited resources. It was also unclear as to whether
the clinics may have had unintended consequences, such as spreading H1N1
to patients who showed up at the dedicated clinic with flu-like symptoms,
but didn't actually have the disease.

For this study, Swann and her collaborators at Purdue University,
Georgia Tech and Emory University used a simulation model to address
questions related to the ultimate impact of dedicated clinics during an
H1N1 pandemic.

The researchers found that opening dedicated clinics reduced disease
spread and hospitalizations, particularly when open during the periods
of peak prevalence -- when the most people are sick. Specifically, the researchers found that if dedicated clinics were open for the entire
duration of the pandemic, the clinics would have reduced the overall
number of infections by 0.4-1.5%; reduced peak prevalence (or "flattened
the curve") by 0.07-0.32%; and reduced hospitalizations by 0.02-0.09%.

"For a state that has a population of 10 million, the difference in
the baseline clinic case would be about 100,000 cases, with about 6,000 hospitalizations averted," Swann says. "In other words, dedicated clinics certainly don't make things worse, and can make things at least a little better. And these are benefits that come on top of any benefits we'd
see from other, behavioral changes -- such as wearing masks -- which
may be more difficult to implement." North Carolina's population is approximately 10.5 million.

The study on dedicated clinics is part of a larger research initiative
that has already published work examining issues related to vaccine distribution for adults and children; the role of mass gatherings and
travel in spreading influenza; and the impact of seasons and mutation
in the spread of the disease.

The paper, "The impact of opening dedicated clinics on disease
transmission during an influenza pandemic," will be published Aug. 6 in
the journal PLOS ONE. The paper was co-authored by Pengyi Shi of Purdue University; Jia Yan and Pinar Keskinocak of Georgia Tech; and by Dr. Andi
Shane of Emory University and Children's Healthcare of Atlanta. The work
was done with support from Georgia Tech, Edward P. Fitts and the A. Doug Allison Distinguished Professorship.


========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by North_Carolina_State_University. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Pengyi Shi, Jia Yan, Pinar Keskinocak, Andi L. Shane, Julie
L. Swann. The
impact of opening dedicated clinics on disease transmission during
an influenza pandemic. PLOS ONE, 2020; 15 (8): e0236455 DOI:
10.1371/ journal.pone.0236455 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200806153602.htm

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