Climate change and land use are accelerating soil erosion by water


Date:
August 24, 2020
Source:
University of Basel
Summary:
Soil loss due to water runoff could increase greatly around the
world over the next 50 years due to climate change and intensive
land cultivation.



FULL STORY ==========================================================================
Soil loss due to water runoff could increase greatly around the
world over the next 50 years due to climate change and intensive
land cultivation. This was the conclusion of an international team of researchers led by the University of Basel, which published the results
from its model calculation in the scientific journal PNAS.


==========================================================================
Soil erosion has far-reaching consequences. For example, it results in
a loss of fertile soil, reduces agricultural productivity and therefore threatens the food supply for the world's population. Based on a global
model, the new study now predicts how soil loss from water erosion is
likely to change by the year 2070.

Erosion is the process by which soil is carried away by wind and, above
all, water. Intensive agricultural land use and agricultural methods
that increase erosion, along with deforestation and overgrazing, are responsible for accelerating the loss of soil. In addition, in some
parts of the world climate change is expected to further increase the
amount of precipitation that will erode the soil.

Three scenarios by the year 2070 The researchers based their predictions
on three scenarios that are also used by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC). The scenarios outline potential developments in
the 21st century based on several different socio- economic postulations.

All the scenarios including the effects of climate and land use change
predict persistent water erosion, irrespective of the climate conditions
in most of the roughly 200 countries that were included in the study. At
the same time, the results indicate that climate change is the primary
factor driving increased soil erosion.

Depending on the scenario, the simulations predict that by 2070 soil
erosion will increase significantly, by 30% to 66%, compared to 2015
figures. If agricultural practices do not change and measures are not
taken to stop global warming, the study predicts that more than 28
billion additional metric tons of soil will be lost annually. This is
around two-thirds more than the 43 billion tons estimated for 2015.

A call for sustainable land cultivation The places most vulnerable
to a sharp increase in erosion are low- to middle- income tropical
and sub-tropical countries. The authors say that it will therefore be
critical for countries in the Global South to promote more widespread
use of sustainable agricultural practices.

"Soil erosion can be mitigated by sustainable land cultivation and the
right policies," says Dr. Pasquale Borrelli, an environmental scientist
from the University of Basel. "We hope that our predictions will help to identify the magnitude of the threat from erosion and allow policy-makers
to develop effective measures to soften the impact." Researchers from
the University of Basel, Kangwon National University, the UK Centre for
Ecology & Hydrology, the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission
and ETH Zurich all contributed to the study.


========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by University_of_Basel. Note: Content
may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Pasquale Borrelli, David A. Robinson, Panos Panagos, Emanuele
Lugato, Jae
E. Yang, Christine Alewell, David Wuepper, Luca Montanarella,
Cristiano Ballabio. Land use and climate change impacts on global
soil erosion by water (2015-2070). Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences, 2020; 202001403 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2001403117 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200824165633.htm

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