WTPS11 NFFN 281200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 281354 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 170.2E
AT 281200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD05F MOVING NORTH AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI CIRCLE. SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARDS AND
THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS.

A MODERATE RAPIDLY DEEPENING IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
DEPRESSION LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GOOD OUTFLOW AND UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM. SST IS AROUND 30
DEGREES CELSIUS.
TD05F IS BEING STEERED TO THE EAST BEFORE SOUTHEAST BY THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUITORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM. IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP, IT WILL POSE AN
IMMEDIATE THREAT TO FIJI.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THE DEPRESSION AND MAINTAINING
AN EASTWARDS TRACK BEFORE AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWADS TRACK. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS IS HIGH.



FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 290000 UTC 16.0S 171.9E MOV E AT 08 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 291200 UTC 16.3S 173.8E MOV E AT 09 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 300000 UTC 16.9S 175.6E MOV E AT 09 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 301200 UTC 17.7S 177.1E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 282000UTC.
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