AXAU01 APRF 151803
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1803 UTC 15/01/2021
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.1S
Longitude: 94.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [235 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 16/0000: 16.3S 93.7E: 045 [085]: 035 [065]: 996
+12: 16/0600: 16.5S 93.1E: 060 [105]: 035 [065]: 996
+18: 16/1200: 16.7S 92.6E: 065 [120]: 035 [065]: 996
+24: 16/1800: 16.9S 92.1E: 075 [135]: 040 [075]: 993
+36: 17/0600: 17.4S 90.9E: 085 [160]: 045 [085]: 991
+48: 17/1800: 18.1S 89.8E: 105 [195]: 055 [100]: 984
+60: 18/0600: 18.9S 88.7E: 120 [220]: 060 [110]: 978
+72: 18/1800: 19.3S 87.9E: 130 [245]: 060 [110]: 977
+96: 19/1800: 19.9S 85.1E: 165 [310]: 045 [085]: 990
+120: 20/1800: 21.3S 80.5E: 195 [355]: 040 [075]: 993
REMARKS:
07U was located by evening microwave passes and a 1345 UTC ASCAT pass. A new convective blow up was located about 30 nm to the southwest of the LLCC and the separation of the low level centre and the deep convection is now decreasing. Imagery still shows a sharp temperature boundary on the northeastern side of
he
convective blow up indicating the system is still being affected by moderate shear.

A Dvorak shear analysis yields a DT of 3.0. The 24 hour trend is currently steady [S] and MET is 2.5 with PAT also at 2.5. The recent ASCAT pass indicated maximum winds of around 35 knots to the southwest of the centre so final intensity estimate has been increased to 35 knots but with gales restricted to only the southwest quadrant.

The system is over favourable SSTs of around 27-28C and there is no dry air adjacent to the circulation. Shear is expected to decrease during Saturday and TC intensity is forecast to be reached during the early hours of Sunday.

Models are in good agreement that 07U will continue on a steady movement to the southwest and that it is likely to develop storm force winds late Sunday or early Monday as it moves west of 90E. From Monday models indicate a mid-level trough increases shear over the tropical cyclone and a weakening trend begins.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/0130 UTC.
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