WTXS31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 9.7S 47.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7S 47.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 9.6S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 9.5S 45.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 9.3S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 9.0S 43.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 8.5S 41.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 8.0S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 7.6S 38.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 9.7S 47.5E.
21APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 552
NM NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) VERIFIES THE RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF TC
29S, WITH A WEAK EYE LIKE FEATURE BECOMING EVIDENT IN THE VISIBLE
AND INFRARED IMAGERY BY THE 211000Z HOUR, AND SUBSEQUENTLY FADING BY
THE 211200Z HOUR. A 211036Z AMSR2 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE EXHIBITED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), FORMING A CLEAR 12NM MICROWAVE EYE, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DVORAK-
BASED ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN T3.0-T3.4 ARE LIKELY UNDER-
ESTIMATING THE INTENSITY DUE TO KNOWN DVORAK TECHNIQUE BIASES WITH
COMPACT SYSTEMS. THUS, INTENSITY IS INCREASED ABOVE ALL AVAILABLE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES PRIMARILY DUE TO THE OVERALL STRUCTURE IN THE
MICROWAVE AND INFRARED IMAGERY. OVERALL, TC JOBO LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH EXPANDING CIRRUS OUTFLOW TO THE WEST INDICATIVE OF
AN IMPROVED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS
ROUND OUT THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALLOWING FOR THE RECENT PERIOD OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. TC JOBO HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
PAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. THE
RECENT PERIOD OF SLOWING IS ATTRIBUTED TO A WEAKENED GRADIENT
INDUCED BY THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF TANZANIA JUST AFTER TAU 96.
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH TAU 24, ALLOWING FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS. THEREAFTER, THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL INDUCE INCREASED SHEAR,
RESULTING IN A FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 72. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND SHEAR RELAXES ONCE AGAIN, A BRIEF PERIOD
OF REINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL, FOLLOWED BY
DISSIPATION ONCE INLAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FULL RANGE OF THE FORECAST, WITH SPREAD
INCREASING FROM 65NM AT TAU 48 TO 130NM AT TAU 120, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220300Z AND 221500Z.
//
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