WTXS32 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 105.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 105.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.2S 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.1S 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.9S 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.9S 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.3S 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.9S 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.1S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 105.3E.
05APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
626 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 051005Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS AND THE PARTIAL 051249Z
ASCAT METOP-A IMAGE, AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE (ADT) T3.6(57KTS) AND THE SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) OF
67KTS. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET WITH STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THE RECENT
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP INDICATES THE COLD DRY AIR INTRUSION
WEAKENING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE HAS
STALLED INTO A RECENTLY DEVELOPED COL AREA BETWEEN TC 27S AND TC 26S
TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 27S IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY WITH
SOME SLIGHT EASTWARD MOTION AS THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST WEAKENS AND RECEDES WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE POLEWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL ASSUME STEERING. THE SLOW MOTION OF THE
SYSTEM AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 60KTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARD, THE CYCLONE
WILL WEAKEN TO 45KTS BY TAU 120 AS POSSIBLE BINARY INTERACTION WITH
TC 26S BEGINS TO ABSORB TC 27S. THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT DUE
TO THE COL DEVELOPMENT HAS INCREASED THE ALREADY LARGE DISCREPANCY
AMONG THE NUMERICAL MODELS. THE LARGE VARIANCE IN THE PROJECTED
TRACKS LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST LAID CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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