Indian-S: TS Eloise W25
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Fri Jan 22 00:04:00 2021
WTIO30 FMEE 211844
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/7/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/21 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 40.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 102 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 185
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/22 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 370 SW: 270 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 65
24H: 2021/01/22 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 65
36H: 2021/01/23 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 34.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SW: 120 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 65
48H: 2021/01/23 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 45 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SW: 35 NW: 35
60H: 2021/01/24 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 31.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2021/01/24 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 30.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE CENTER SHOW
INCREASING SIGNS OF CURVATURE. LAST MICRO WAVE DATA (1356Z SSMIS,..)
ALSO SHOW A MORE COMPACT INNER CORE. STRONGEST WINDS MEASURED AT JUAN
DE NOVA CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF GALE FORCE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION.
LAST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS ARE AROUND 3.0/3.5. FINALLY, 1518Z
SMAP SWATH SHOW MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 60KT. EVEN IT SEEMS TO
OVERESTIMATE, THE REAL INTENSITY IS PROBABLY CLOSE TO SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM THRESHOLD. INTENSITY IS SET FOR NOW AT 45KT WHICH MAY BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK ACROSS THE
CHANNEL, MOVING ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. FOLLOWING THIS TRACK, ELOISE SHOULD
REACH THE MOZAMBICAN COAST BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS GOOD AND IS BASED
ON A LOW SPREAD MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE TO
A SWIFT OR EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION (WARM WATER, WET ENVIRONMENT,
NO SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE). EVEN IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST DO NOT REACH INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE, SUCH
INTENSITIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FOR THE AREA AROUND BEIRA, BETWEEN
THE ZAMBEZI AND SAVE DELTAS IS STILL PRESENT. TOMORROW HEAVY RAINS
WILL START TO IMPACT SOME AREAS, A LARGE COASTAL ZONE BETWEEN ANGOCHE
AND QUELIMANE AS THE METEOR APPROACHES. THE STRONG WIND SHOULD ALSO
BE MORE PRESENT FROM TOMORROW IN THESE AREAS. FROM FRIDAY, THE WORST
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS BEIRA THEN INLAND WITH THE
ELOISE CENTER. THE INHABITANTS OF MOZAMBIQUE ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW
THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
=
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)
From
Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to
All on Fri Jan 22 00:04:00 2021
WTIO30 FMEE 211844
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/7/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/21 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 40.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 102 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 185
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/22 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 370 SW: 270 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 65
24H: 2021/01/22 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 65
36H: 2021/01/23 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 34.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SW: 120 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 65
48H: 2021/01/23 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 45 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SW: 35 NW: 35
60H: 2021/01/24 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 31.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2021/01/24 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 30.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE CENTER SHOW
INCREASING SIGNS OF CURVATURE. LAST MICRO WAVE DATA (1356Z SSMIS,..)
ALSO SHOW A MORE COMPACT INNER CORE. STRONGEST WINDS MEASURED AT JUAN
DE NOVA CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF GALE FORCE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION.
LAST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS ARE AROUND 3.0/3.5. FINALLY, 1518Z
SMAP SWATH SHOW MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 60KT. EVEN IT SEEMS TO
OVERESTIMATE, THE REAL INTENSITY IS PROBABLY CLOSE TO SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM THRESHOLD. INTENSITY IS SET FOR NOW AT 45KT WHICH MAY BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK ACROSS THE
CHANNEL, MOVING ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. FOLLOWING THIS TRACK, ELOISE SHOULD
REACH THE MOZAMBICAN COAST BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS GOOD AND IS BASED
ON A LOW SPREAD MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE TO
A SWIFT OR EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION (WARM WATER, WET ENVIRONMENT,
NO SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE). EVEN IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST DO NOT REACH INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE, SUCH
INTENSITIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FOR THE AREA AROUND BEIRA, BETWEEN
THE ZAMBEZI AND SAVE DELTAS IS STILL PRESENT. TOMORROW HEAVY RAINS
WILL START TO IMPACT SOME AREAS, A LARGE COASTAL ZONE BETWEEN ANGOCHE
AND QUELIMANE AS THE METEOR APPROACHES. THE STRONG WIND SHOULD ALSO
BE MORE PRESENT FROM TOMORROW IN THESE AREAS. FROM FRIDAY, THE WORST
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS BEIRA THEN INLAND WITH THE
ELOISE CENTER. THE INHABITANTS OF MOZAMBIQUE ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW
THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
=
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)