WTIO30 FMEE 091810
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/13/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/09 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 78.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/10 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2021/03/10 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/11 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/11 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/12 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/12 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/13 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

120H: 2021/03/14 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 80

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0+;CI=4.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, THE CLOUD TOPS WITHIN HABANA'S CDO HAVE
GRADUALLY COOLED AGAIN. A WARM SPOT HAS APPEARED WITHIN THE CDO ON
THE VERY LAST IR IMAGES. THIS REFLECTS THE IMPROVEMENT OF HABANA'S
INNER STRUCTURE FIRST SEEN ON MW IMAGERY BETWEEN THE 1303Z SSMIS AND
1149Z SSMIS SWATH : AN INNER CONVECTIVE RING WAS BEGINNING TO BUILD
AGAIN DESPITE A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE
1307Z SMAP SWATH SUGGESTS MAX WINDS AT 58KT. GIVEN THE SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN THE CLOUD PATTERN, THE RSMC INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS
SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THIS READING.

HABANA KEEPS HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT CURRENTLY CRAWLS ITS WAY SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. FROM THURSDAY, MOST MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHWESTWARD
DIVE TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HABANA IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD
SUNDAY. THE MAIN MODELS SEEM TO CONVERGE ON THIS SCENARIO, BUT A
MODERATE DISPERSION STILL REMAINS. THE RSMC'S FORECAST IS BASED ON A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HABANA IS EXPECTED TO BENEFIT FROM CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM. HABANA IS MOVING IN THE
SAME DIRECTION AS THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (ESTIMATED AROUND 10 KT AT
12Z ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA) WHICH SHOULD PREVENT DRY MID-LEVEL
INTRUSIONS. IT WILL THUS BENEFIT FROM A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A
FAVORABLE OCEANIC POTENTIAL. THUS, HABANA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK
ITS MOISTURE POACH AND REINTENSIFY. FROM SATURDAY THEN MORE SHARPLY
SUNDAY, A VERY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
COULD BEGIN TO BRING DRY AIR CLOSER TO THE TC INNER CORE AND TRIGGER
ITS WEAKENING.

OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED
LANDS.
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