WTPS11 NFFN 051800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 052034 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NIRAN CENTRE 931HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9S
161.4E AT 051800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS EIR AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
25 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT
110 KNOTS EASING TO 90 KNOTS BY 061200UTC.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 220 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NIRAN CONTINUES ITS RAPID EAST SOUTHEAST
TRACK WITH A CLOUD FILLED EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION.
ORGANISATION VERY GOOD WITH DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING WITH PRIMARY
BANDS WRAPPING ON FROM THE NORTHWEST. NIRAN HAS GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND LIES IN AN AREA OF HIGH NORTHWEST SHEAR DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH
WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
SST IS AROUND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. IT IS BEING STEERED SOUTH SOUTHEAST
BY THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUITORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO WEST OF THE
SYSTEM. DVORAK BASED ON E#5.0 WITH BF0.5 GIVING DT OF 5.5. MET & PT =
6.0. THUS, DVORAK T6.0/6.5/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 060600UTC 22.4S 166.0E MOV ESE AT 25 KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 061800UTC 25.0S 171.2E MOV ESE AT 26 KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 070600UTC 27.5S 176.7E MOV ESE AT 27 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 071800UTC 29.6S 177.8E MOV ESE AT 27 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON NIRAN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 060230UTC.
$$
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