From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Feb 27 02:33:00 2021
AXAU01 APRF 261855
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1855 UTC 26/02/2021
Name: Tropical Cyclone Marian
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 14.4S
Longitude: 95.5E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west [272 deg]
Speed of Movement: 16 knots [31 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 987 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 35 nm [65 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 27/0000: 14.7S 94.3E: 040 [070]: 055 [100]: 982
+12: 27/0600: 14.9S 93.5E: 045 [090]: 055 [100]: 981
+18: 27/1200: 15.3S 92.7E: 050 [095]: 060 [110]: 978
+24: 27/1800: 15.8S 92.1E: 055 [100]: 060 [110]: 978
+36: 28/0600: 16.5S 91.0E: 060 [110]: 070 [130]: 970
+48: 28/1800: 17.0S 90.2E: 075 [140]: 070 [130]: 969
+60: 01/0600: 17.5S 89.6E: 090 [165]: 070 [130]: 969
+72: 01/1800: 17.8S 89.4E: 100 [185]: 070 [130]: 968
+96: 02/1800: 18.5S 91.1E: 135 [250]: 060 [110]: 974
+120: 03/1800: 20.2S 93.9E: 185 [345]: 055 [100]: 978
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Marian [15U] has maintained intensity at category 2.
Dvorak analysis of 3.5 based upon 0.9 wrap. MET/PAT concur. ADT has plateaued at 3.7.
An ASCAT pass at 15:31UTC indicated very small patches of 50 kts winds to the northeast and southwest of the system. Intensity set to 50 knots.
The mid-level ridge to the south continues to dominate the steering with a WSW motion forecast although on Saturday the motion will slow as the system deepens and the steering ridge weakens in response to a developing mid-latitude trough to the southeast off southern Western Australia. By late Monday [1 March] the slow moving system should start to track to the southeast and accelerate somewhat owing to an approaching mid-latitude trough but remain well west of the Australian mainland.
The analysed shear [CIMSS] has decreased to moderate to high, partially offset by good upper divergence to the southwest of the system. The shear is expected to persist and dry air can be seen wrapping around to the north and northeast of
the system in animated TPW. A strengthening trend is forecast which is slightly less than normal due to the environment and large size.
SST's are cooler to the south, with sub 26 degrees south of about 18S. This could limit development on Monday and then assist in the system weakening as it moves further south. The circulation is expected to remain at TC strength over open waters for the next 5-7 days.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/0130 UTC.
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