WTPS11 NFFN 081800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 082016 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F CENTER [996HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 18.0S
178.7W AT 081800UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERY REPORTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS
NEAR THE CENTRE.
DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F [996HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 18.0S 178.7W AT
081800UTC. POSITION FAIR. TD09F MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS.EXPECT
CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 270 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY
FROM TD09F CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST.

DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTENT OVER LLCC WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO
WRAP ONTO LLCC FROM THE EAST. ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED. THE
SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SOUTH OF AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES. DEPRESSION IS STEERED TO THE SOUTH
BY THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND, WITH 0.5/0.55 BANDING ON LOG 10
SPIRAL YIELDING DT=2.5, MET AND PT AGREE. THUS, YIELDING
T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 090600UTC 20.4S 178.6W MOV AT KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 091800UTC 23.2S 178.2W MOV AT KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 100600UTC 26.4S 177.4W MOV AT KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 101800UTC 30.0S 176.2W MOV AT KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD09F WILL BE ISSUED AT
090200UTC OR EARLIER.
$$
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