WTIO30 FMEE 071830
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/10/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 80.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/08 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2021/02/08 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/09 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/02/09 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2021/02/10 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 85.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/02/10 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/11 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 85.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 45

120H: 2021/02/12 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 30 SW: 75 NW: 85

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5 CI=6.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE RING AROUND FARAJI EYE HAS MOSTLY
CONTINUED TO WARM UP PROBABLY IN RELATION WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE
OVERSEA BUT ALSO MAY BE IN RELATION WITH THE COOLING OF THE WATERS
BENEATH. SINCE THE LAST FEW HOURS THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO COOL DOWN
AGAIN
SINCE A FEW HOURS, THE MORE SUSTAINED EASTWARD MOTION SEEMS TO BE
ALSO CONFIRMED . IN AGREEMENT WITH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS, INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 100KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, FARAJI IS MOVING EASTWARD, UNER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW
GOING DOWN, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT SOUTH. GIVEN THE
TIGHT LINK BETWEEN THE RATE OF DECAY AND THE TRACK, THE FORECAST IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT IS SHOWN BY STRONG SPREAD AMONG THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE. CURRENT FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MEANS.

FARAJI REMAINS UNDER THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE OF ALTITUDE WHICH ALLOWS
HIM TO BENEFIT FROM A GOOD DIVERGENCE OF ALTITUDE WHILE ESCAPING THE
WIND SHEAR. DESPITE ITS PRESENCE OVER HIGH POTENTIAL WATERS, FARAJI
SLOW MOTION PUTS IT UNDER RISK OF COOLING THE WATERS BENEATH. IF
FARAJI CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY, IT SHOULD ESCAPE THIS WEAKENING.
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STARTING MONDAY, A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST, IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE A SOUTHWESTERN SHEAR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. ASSOCIATED WITH
DRY AIR, THIS STRESS SHOULD STOP THE INTENSIFICATION AND THEN WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM MORE STRONGLY ON TUESDAY. THE AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS CHRONOLOGY.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR INHABITED LANDS.
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