WTXS32 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 79.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 79.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 14.9S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 14.7S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 14.6S 82.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.7S 83.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.6S 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 16.3S 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.3S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 80.0E.
07FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
639 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A 24 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE PRESENCE OF THE
EYE FEATURE LENDS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION,
WHICH HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY (QS) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127
KTS, FMEE), T6.0 (115 KTS, PGTW) AND T5.5 (102 KTS, FIMP). TC 19S
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) TO THE NORTH AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-
10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) AND ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
DESPITE THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, TC FARAJI WILL STRUGGLE TO
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT 115 KTS INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE
TO ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM
AND A LIKELY LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AS A RESULT OF THE QS STORM
MOTION. AFTER TAU 24, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT GRADUAL RE-INTENSIFICATION TO 120 KTS BY TAU 48. THEREAFTER, A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BY TAU 72 WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM. INITIALLY, THE STEERING STR WILL DRIVE THE
SYSTEM POLEWARD AFTER TAU 72 AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 96.
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS AFTER TAU 72, COUPLED WITH COOLING SST AND
CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTH WILL LEAD TO
FURTHER WEAKENING TO 70 KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE INITIAL EASTWARD TRACK HOWEVER THE
DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE BUILDING STR RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE POLEWARD RE-CURVATURE AFTER TAU 72. THIS UNCERTAINTY
LENDS ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS
PLACED LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET A SIGNIFICANT
POLEWARD TRACK BIAS FROM THE NAVGEM SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND
080900Z.
//
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