WTIO30 FMEE 070701
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/10/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8 S / 79.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 2.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 939 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/07 18 UTC: 14.9 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 240 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2021/02/08 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/08 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/02/09 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2021/02/09 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

72H: 2021/02/10 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 84.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/11 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 100

120H: 2021/02/12 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, FARAJI EYE GOT CLEARER IN CLASSICAL IMAGES.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS ARE AROUND 6.5 FOR A FEW HOURS. THE
MICROWAVE DATA CONFIRM THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE EYEWALL (2325Z SSMIS).
A SMAP SWATH (0033Z) INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 88KT. INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS THEREFORE REACHED AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS, INTENSITY IS SET TO 105KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO
FADE AWAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A START OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THESE CONTRADICTORY
INFLUENCES, FARAJI'S TRACK IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION AND ACCELERATE. AT LONGER RANGE, A RIDGE IS AGAIN
STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL HELP THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, GRADUALLY TAKING OVER THE STEERING FLOW. UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THESE TWO CENTERS, FARAJI SHOULD MAKE A WESTWARD TURN SIMULTANEOUS
TO ITS WEAKENING. THESE MULTIPLE INFLUENCES GENERATE A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTIES AND A STRONG SPREAD AMONG THE GUIDANCE EVEN IF IT IS
DECREASING. SPEED MOTION IS ONE OF THE MOST DIVERGENT PARAMETERS IN
THE LAST RUNS.

FARAJI REMAINS UNDER THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE OF ALTITUDE WHICH ALLOWS
HIM TO BENEFIT FROM A GOOD DIVERGENCE OF ALTITUDE WHILE ESCAPING THE
WIND SHEAR. DESPITE ITS PRESENCE OVER HIGH POTENTIAL WATERS, FARAJI
SLOW MOTION PUTS IT UNDER RISK OF COOLING THE WATERS BENEATH. IT THE
FARAJI STARTS MOVING AGAIN, IT SHOULD ESCAPE THE WEAKENING FORECAST
AT SHORT RANGE. AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
STARTING MONDAY, A TROUGH APPROACHING THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A SOUTHWESTERN SHEAR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE.
ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR, THIS STRESS SHOULD STOP THE INTENSIFICATION
AND THEN WEAKEN THE SYSTEM MORE STRONGLY ON TUESDAY. THE AVAILABLE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS CHRONOLOGY.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR INHABITED LANDS.
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