Quote of the day by Microsoft co-founder and ex-CEO Bill Gates: 'We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the ten' insights on the nature of progress

Date:
Fri, 19 Jun 2026 22:00:00 +0000

Description:
Progress isn't always linear or straightforward, but innovation must also contend with hype cycles and undue business and media attention

FULL STORY ======================================================================Copy link Facebook X Whatsapp Reddit Pinterest Flipboard Threads Email Share this article 0 Join the conversation Follow us Add us as a preferred source on Google Newsletter Subscribe to our newsletter Bill Gates is a one of the stand-out technology pioneers, and has experienced his fair share of hype cycles, having led Microsoft for so many years. When new technologies emerge, it's normal to get excited but sometimes the rate of progress and the expectations of not just consumers but other businesses fail to match the reality of innovation. "We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the ten." Bill Gates, November 1995 Technology hype cycles The 'Road Ahead' was a huge bestseller and drew a lot of attention when it launched in 1995. Author Bill Gates, who was CEO and chairman of Microsoft at the time, used the book to opine on various philosophical and technological themes. One highlight in particular was a segment on technological hype cycles and the attitude of people toward innovation. Quote of the day This article is part of TechRadar Pro's QOTD project to provide an insight into the minds of the brightest and most recognized figures in the technology industry today and in years gone
by. Read the full series here . The first part of the quote highlighting our fixation on where innovation might lead immediately alludes to the immediate spike in media attention, excitement and, sometimes, overcommitment. We've seen that time and again over history with AI a great example of a
technology that's undergone numerous hype cycles since the 1960s. Latest Videos From Watch full video here:

We also fail to capture the reality of compounding gains over many years
with technologies needing not just breakthroughs but ecosystems and support layers. Over the period of a decade or so, we may not realise the small gains made along the way but zoom and suddenly you realise how different things really are. Excitement about the future Exciting technologies today,
including AI, threaten to follow in the footsteps of breakthroughs of yesterday, like the internet, smartphones, or even social media. You may like Quote of the day by Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai: "Quantum is where AI was five years ago" insight on the next big tech craze Quote of the day by Nvidia CEO, Jensen Huang: "I appreciate that many of us grew up and enjoyed science fiction, but it's not helpful" on quantifying the existential risks posed by AI Quote of the day by SpaceX CEO Elon Musk: "If you go back say, 300 years, the things we take for granted today, you'd be burned at stake for" echoes
of science fiction

With expectations heightened, patience narrowing and technology exponentially improving, there's an argument to make that the situation is getting worse, not better, compared with when Bill Gates wrote that sentence in 1995.

Quantum computing is a prime example of how many, including investors, overestimate where the technology might be within a couple of years, projecting the lack of visible improvement forward to the extent where many write off the tech altogether . Now, however, scientists expect us to build a superpowerful machine by 2030 . Are you a pro? Subscribe to our newsletter Sign up to the TechRadar Pro newsletter to get all the top news, opinion, features and guidance your business needs to succeed! Contact me with news
and offers from other Future brands Receive email from us on behalf of our trusted partners or sponsors By submitting your information you agree to the Terms & Conditions and Privacy Policy and are aged 16 or over.



======================================================================
Link to news story: https://www.techradar.com/pro/quote-of-the-day-by-microsoft-co-founder-and-ex- ceo-bill-gates-we-always-overestimate-the-change-that-will-occur-in-the-next-t wo-years-and-underestimate-the-change-that-will-occur-in-the-ten-insights-on-t he-nature-of-progress


--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A49 (Linux/64)
* Origin: tqwNet Technology News (1337:1/100)