Contact tracing apps unlikely to contain COVID-19 spread: UK researchers


Date:
August 20, 2020
Source:
University College London
Summary:
Contract tracing apps used to reduce the spread of COVID-19 are
unlikely to be effective without proper uptake and support from
concurrent control measures, finds a new study by researchers in the
United Kingdom. The systematic review shows that large-scale manual
contact tracing alongside other public health control measures --
such as physical distancing and closure of indoor spaces such as
pubs -- is likely to be required in conjunction with automated
approaches.



FULL STORY ========================================================================== Contract tracing apps used to reduce the spread of COVID-19 are unlikely
to be effective without proper uptake and support from concurrent control measures, finds a new study by UCL researchers.


==========================================================================
The systematic review*, published in Lancet Digital Health, shows that
evidence around the effectiveness of automated contact tracing systems is currently very limited, and large-scale manual contact tracing alongside
other public health control measures -- such as physical distancing and
closure of indoor spaces such as pubs -- is likely to be required in conjunction with automated approaches.

The team found 15 relevant studies by reviewing more than 4,000 papers
on automated and partially-automated contact tracing, and analysed these
to understand the potential impact these tools could have in controlling
the COVID-19 pandemic.

Lead author Dr Isobel Braithwaite (UCL Institute of Health Informatics)
said: "Across a number of modelling studies, we found a consistent picture
that although automated contact tracing could support manual contact
tracing, the systems will require large-scale uptake by the population
and strict adherence to quarantine advice by contacts notified to have a significant impact on reducing transmission." The authors suggest that
even under optimistic assumptions -- where 75-80% of UK smartphone owners
are using a contact tracing app, and 90-100% of identified potential
close contacts initially adhere to quarantine advice -- automated contact tracing methods would still need to be used within an integrated public
health response to prevent exponential growth of the epidemic.

In total, 4,033 papers published between 1 Jan 2000 and 14 April 2020
were reviewed, which allowed researchers to identify 15 papers with
useful data. The seven studies that addressed automated contact tracing directly were modelling studies that all focused on COVID-19. Five studies
of partially-automated contact tracing were descriptive observational
studies or case studies, and three studies of automated contact detection looked at a similar disease context to COVID-19, but did not include
subsequent tracing or contact notification.



========================================================================== Partially-automated systems may have some automated processes, for
instance in determining the duration of follow-up of contacts required,
but do not use proximity of smartphones as a proxy for contact with an
infected person.

Analysis of automated contact tracing apps generally suggested that high population uptake of relevant apps is required alongside other control measures, while partially-automated systems often had better follow-up
and slightly more timely intervention.

Dr Braithwaite said: "Although automated contact tracing shows some
promise in helping reduce transmission of COVID-19 within communities,
our research highlighted the urgent need for further evaluation of these
apps within public health practice, as none of the studies we found
provided real-world evidence of their effectiveness, and to improve our understanding of how they could support manual contact tracing systems."
The review shows that, at present, there is insufficient evidence
to justify reliance on automated contact tracing approaches without
additional extensive public health control measures.

Dr Robert Aldridge (UCL Institute of Health Informatics) added: "We
currently do not have good evidence about whether a notification from
a smartphone app is as effective in breaking chains of transmission by
giving advice to isolate due to contact with a case of COVID-19 when
compared to advice provided by a public health contact tracer. We
urgently need to study this evidence gap and examine how automated
approaches can be integrated with existing contact tracing and disease
control strategies, and generate evidence on whether these new digital approaches are cost-effective and equitable." If implemented effectively
and quarantine advice is adhered to appropriately, automated contact
tracing may offer benefits such as reducing reliance on human recall
of close contacts, which could enable identification of additional at-
risk individuals, informing potentially affected people in real-time,
and saving on resources.



==========================================================================
Dr Braithwaite added: "We should be mindful that automated approaches
raise potential privacy and ethics concerns, and also rely on high
smartphone ownership, so they may be of very limited value in some
countries. Too much reliance on automated contact tracing apps may also increase the risk of COVID- 19 for vulnerable and digitally-excluded
groups such as older people and people experiencing homelessness."
If implementing automated contact tracing technology, the authors say
that decision-makers should thoroughly assess available evidence around
its effectiveness, privacy and equality considerations, monitoring this
as the evidence base evolves.

They add that plans to properly integrate contact tracing apps within comprehensive outbreak response strategies are important, and their
impacts should be evaluated rigorously. A combination of different
approaches is needed to control COVID-19, and the review concludes that
contact tracing apps have the potential to support that but they are
not a panacea.

This study is co-authored by researchers UCL Public Health Data Science Research Group, Institute of Health Informatics, Department of Applied
Health Research, and Collaborative Centre for Inclusion Health.

*A systematic review carefully identifies all the relevant published and unpublished studies, rates them for quality and synthesises the studies' findings across the studies identified.

Study limitations As part of this systematic review, researchers
did not find any epidemiological studies comparing automated to
manual contact tracing systems and their effectiveness in identifying
contacts. Other limitations include the lack of eligible empirical studies
of fully-automated contact tracing and a paucity of evidence related to
ethical concerns or cost-effectiveness.


========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by University_College_London. Note:
Content may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Isobel Braithwaite, Thomas Callender, Miriam Bullock, Robert
W Aldridge.

Automated and partly automated contact tracing: a systematic review
to inform the control of COVID-19. The Lancet Digital Health,
2020; DOI: 10.1016/S2589-7500(20)30184-9 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200820110855.htm

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