Researchers predict deficits in female birth numbers in India over
coming decades

Date:
August 19, 2020
Source:
PLOS
Summary:
Between 2017 and 2030, an estimated 6.8 million fewer female
births will be recorded in India than would be by chance, due to
sex-selective abortions, according to a new study.



FULL STORY ========================================================================== Between 2017 and 2030, an estimated 6.8 million fewer female births
will be recorded in India than would be by chance, due to sex-selective abortions, according to a new study published August 19, 2020 in the open-access journal PLOS ONE by Fengqing Chao of King Abdullah University
of Science and Technology (KAUST), Saudi Arabia, and colleagues.


========================================================================== There has been a reported imbalance in India in the sex ratio at birth
(SRB) since the 1970s due to the emergence of prenatal sex selection and
the cultural preference for male babies. Unlike other countries affected
by such imbalances, India is unique in its regional diversity of sex
ratio imbalance. Previous projections of sex ratio at birth in India
have been constructed at the national level or were based primarily on
expert opinion rather than reproducible modeling.

In the new study, researchers projected the SRB in the largest 29 Indian
States and Union Territories (UTs), which covered 98.4% of the total
population of India as of the year 2011.

Among the 21 Indian States/Uts with high quality birth data, 17 showed
a positive effective of son preference on the SRB, with the highest
SRBs concentrated in the most northwestern States/UTs. In particular,
the effect of son preference is statistically significant in nine
States/UTs. For the whole of India, summing up the 29 state-level
projections, the cumulative number of missing female births during 2017
to 2030 is projected to be 6.8 million (95% CI 6.6-7.0 million). The
average annual number of missing female births between 2017 and 2025
is projected to be 469,000 (456,000-483,000) per year and is projected
to increase to 519,000 (485,000-552,000) per year for the time period
2026 to 2030. The projects represent an essential input for population projection models in India, especially at the sub-national level.

The authors add: "We project that the highest deficits in female births
will occur in Uttar Pradesh, with a cumulative number of missing female
births of 2 million from 2017 to 2030. The total female birth deficits
during 2017-2030 for the whole of India is projected to be 6.8 million."

========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by PLOS. Note: Content may be edited
for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Fengqing Chao, Christophe Z. Guilmoto, Samir K. C., Hernando Ombao.

Probabilistic projection of the sex ratio at birth and missing
female births by State and Union Territory in India. PLOS ONE,
2020; 15 (8): e0236673 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0236673 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200819144107.htm

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