COVID-19 study links strict social distancing to much lower chance of infection
Researchers say that similar studies could be used to predict local
trends in infectious outbreaks

Date:
September 10, 2020
Source:
Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health
Summary:
Using public transportation, visiting a place of worship,
or otherwise traveling from the home is associated with a
significantly higher likelihood of testing positive with the
coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, while practicing strict social distancing
is associated with a markedly lower likelihood.



FULL STORY ========================================================================== [People social distancing | Credit: (c) Photocreo Bednarek /
stock.adobe.com] People social distancing concept (stock image).

Credit: (c) Photocreo Bednarek / stock.adobe.com [People social
distancing | Credit: (c) Photocreo Bednarek / stock.adobe.com] People
social distancing concept (stock image).

Credit: (c) Photocreo Bednarek / stock.adobe.com Close Using public transportation, visiting a place of worship, or otherwise traveling
from the home is associated with a significantly higher likelihood
of testing positive with the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, while practicing
strict social distancing is associated with a markedly lower likelihood, suggests a study from researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School
of Public Health.


==========================================================================
For their analysis, the researchers surveyed a random sample of more than
1,000 people in the state of Maryland in late June, asking about their
social distancing practices, use of public transportation, SARS-CoV-2
infection history, and other COVID-19-relevant behaviors. They found,
for example, that those reporting frequent public transport use were
more than four times as likely to report a history of testing positive
for SARS-CoV-2 infection, while those who reported practicing strict
outdoor social distancing were just a tenth as likely to report ever
being SARS-CoV-2 positive.

The study is believed to be among the first large-scale evaluations of
COVID- 19-relevant behaviors that is based on individual-level survey
data, as opposed to aggregated data from sources such as cellphone apps.

The results were published online on September 2 in Clinical Infectious Diseases.

"Our findings support the idea that if you're going out, you should
practice social distancing to the extent possible because it does seem
strongly associated with a lower chance of getting infected," says study
senior author Sunil Solomon, MBBS, PhD, MPH, an associate professor in the Bloomberg School's Department of Epidemiology and an associate professor
of medicine at Johns Hopkins School Medicine. "Studies like this are
also relatively easy to do, so we think they have the potential to be
useful tools for identification of places or population subgroups with
higher vulnerability." The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has infected
nearly 27 million people around the world, of whom some 900,000 have
died, according to the World Health Organization. In the absence of a
vaccine, public health authorities have emphasized practices such as
staying at home, and wearing masks and maintaining social distancing
while in public. Yet there hasn't been a good way to monitor whether --
and among which groups -- such practices are being followed.



========================================================================== Solomon and colleagues, including first author Steven Clipman, a PhD
candidate in the Bloomberg School's Department of International Health,
quickly accessed willing survey participants via a company that maintains
a large nationwide pool of potential participants as a commercial service
for market research. The 1,030 people included in the study were all
living in Maryland, which has logged more than 113,000 SARS-CoV-2
confirmed cases and nearly 3,700 confirmed deaths, according to the
Maryland Department of Health.

The researchers asked the survey participants questions about recent
travel outside the home, their use of masks, social distancing and
related practices, and any confirmed infection with SARS-CoV-2 either
recently or at all.

The results indicated that 55 (5.3 percent) of the 1,030 participants
had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection at any time, while 18
(1.7 percent) reported testing positive in the two weeks before they
were surveyed.

The researchers found that when considering all the variables they could evaluate, spending more time in public places was strongly associated
with having a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection. For example, an infection history was about 4.3 times more common among participants who stated
that they had used public transportation more than three times in the
prior two weeks, compared to participants who stated they had never used
public transportation in the two- week period.

An infection history also was 16 times more common among those who
reported having visited a place of worship three or more times in the
prior two weeks, compared to those who reported visiting no place of
worship during the period.

The survey did not distinguish between visiting a place of worship for
a religious service or other purposes, such as a meeting, summer camp
or meal.



========================================================================== Conversely, those who reported practicing social distancing outdoors
"always" were only 10 percent as likely to have a SARS-CoV-2 history,
compared to those who reported "never" practicing social distancing.

An initial, relatively simple analysis linked many other variables to
SARS-CoV- 2 infection history, including being Black or Hispanic. But
a more sophisticated, "multivariable" analysis suggested that many of
these apparent links were largely due to differences in movement and
social distancing.

"When we adjusted for other variables such as social distancing practices,
a lot of those simple associations went away, which provides evidence
that social distancing is an effective measure for reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission," Clipman says.

The data indicated a greater adoption of social distancing practices among
some groups who are especially vulnerable to serious COVID-19 illness, suggesting that they were relatively aware of their vulnerability. For
example, 81 percent of over-65 participants reported always practicing
social distancing at outdoor activities, while only 58 percent of 18-24
year olds did so.

The results are consistent with the general public health message that
mask- wearing, social distancing, and limiting travel whenever possible
reduce SARS- CoV-2 transmission. The researchers suggest, though, that
studies such as these, employing similarly rapid surveys of targeted
groups, could also become useful tools for predicting where and among
which groups infectious diseases will spread most quickly.

"We did this study in Maryland in June, and it showed among other
things that younger people in the state were less likely to reduce
their infection risk with social distancing -- and a month later a large proportion of the SARS-CoV- 2 infections detected in Maryland was among
younger people," says Solomon. "So, it points to the possibility of using
these quick, inexpensive surveys to predict where outbreaks are going to
happen based on behaviors, and then mobilizing public health resources accordingly." Solomon and his team are now conducting similar surveys
in other states and are studying the surveys' potential as predictive epidemiological tools.

Support for the research and for some of the individual researchers came
from the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 Research Response Program, the Burroughs Wellcome Fund, and the National Institutes of Health (DP2LM013102, DP2DA040244).


========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by Johns_Hopkins_University_Bloomberg_School_of_Public Health. Note:
Content may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Steven J Clipman, Amy P Wesolowski, Dustin G Gibson, Smisha Agarwal,
Anastasia S Lambrou, Gregory D Kirk, Alain B Labrique,
Shruti H Mehta, Sunil S Solomon. Rapid real-time tracking of
non-pharmaceutical interventions and their association with
SARS-CoV-2 positivity: The COVID-19 Pandemic Pulse Study. Clinical
Infectious Diseases, 2020; DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciaa1313 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/09/200910110824.htm

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