Demographers put COVID-19 death toll into perspective
Researchers calculate pandemic's impact on U.S. lifespan based on
projected mortality rates

Date:
August 25, 2020
Source:
University of California - Berkeley
Summary:
With over 170,000 COVID-19 deaths to date, and 1,000 more each
day, America's life expectancy may appear to be plummeting. But
in estimating the magnitude of the pandemic, demographers have
found that COVID-19 is likely to shorten the average US lifespan
in 2020 by only about a year.



FULL STORY ==========================================================================
With over 170,000 COVID-19 deaths to date, and 1,000 more each day,
America's life expectancy may appear to be plummeting. But in estimating
the magnitude of the pandemic, University of California, Berkeley,
demographers have found that COVID-19 is likely to shorten the average
U.S. lifespan in 2020 by only about a year.


========================================================================== Seeking to put current COVID-19 mortality rates into historic, demographic
and economic perspective, UC Berkeley demographers Ronald Lee and Joshua Goldstein calculated the consequences of U.S. lives lost to COVID-19
in 2020 using two scenarios. One was based on a projection of 1 million
deaths for the year, the other on the more likely projection of 250,000
deaths.

Their findings, published online last week in the Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences, conclude that 1 million deaths in 2020
would cut three years off the average U.S. life expectancy, while 250,000 deaths would reduce lifespans by about a year.

That said, without the societal efforts that have occurred to lessen the
impact of COVID-19, there could have been 2 million deaths projected by
the end of 2020, a reduction of the average U.S. lifespan by five years,
the researchers pointed out.

Their estimated drop in life expectancy is modest, in part, because
250,000 deaths is not a large increase on top of the 3 million
non-COVID-19 deaths expected for 2020, and because older people, who
typically have fewer remaining years of life than others do, represent
the most COVID-19 fatalities, the study notes.

Still, while COVID-19 mortality rates remain lower than those of the
1918 Spanish flu pandemic, the coronavirus epidemic could be just as devastating as the longer-lasting HIV and opioid epidemics if mitigation efforts fail, the researchers said.

"The death toll of COVID-19 is a terrible thing, both for those who
lose their lives and for their family, friends, colleagues and all whom
their lives touched. Those are real people, not abstract statistics,"
said Lee, a UC Berkeley professor emeritus of demography and associate
director of the campus's Center for the Economics and Demography of Aging.

"But the population perspective helps put this tragedy in a broader
context. As we work to contain this epidemic, it is important to know
that we have been through such mortality crises before," he added.

Goldstein's and Lee's measures are based on factors that include a
current U.S.

population of 330 million, age-specific death rates and the economic
valuation of saved lives.

Among their other findings:
* One million COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. in 2020 would be the
equivalent
of U.S. mortality levels in 1995, adding three years to each
American's biological age, albeit temporarily.

* The age gap (old versus young) for people dying from COVID-19 is
marginally wider than during pre-pandemic times, while the
male-female gap is slightly narrower. The researchers found similar
death-by-age patterns across several countries.

* The economic cost of lives lost to COVID-19 in the U.S. is in the
trillions of dollars. According to standard government measures,
the demographers estimated that the loss of 1 million lives in
2020 would amount to between $10.2 and $17.5 trillion, while the
amount for 250,000 deaths would range from $1.5 to $2.5 trillion.


========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by
University_of_California_-_Berkeley. Original written by Yasmin
Anwar. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Joshua R. Goldstein, Ronald D. Lee. Demographic perspectives on the
mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics. Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences, 2020; 202006392 DOI:
10.1073/pnas.2006392117 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200825160556.htm

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