Computer modeling used to predict reef health
'Virtual' coral reefs become diagnostic tool to help manage the planet's
reefs

Date:
August 25, 2020
Source:
University of British Columbia Okanagan campus
Summary:
A researcher has developed a way to predict the future health of
the planet's coral reefs. He has been studying the ecosystems of
the world's endangered reefs.



FULL STORY ==========================================================================
A UBC Okanagan researcher has developed a way to predict the future
health of the planet's coral reefs.


========================================================================== Working with scientists from Australia's Flinders' University and
privately- owned research firm Nova Blue Environment, biology doctoral
student Bruno Carturan has been studying the ecosystems of the world's endangered reefs.

"Coral reefs are among the most diverse ecosystems on Earth and
they support the livelihoods of more than 500 million people," says
Carturan. "But coral reefs are also in peril. About 75 per cent of the
world's coral reefs are threatened by habitat loss, climate change and
other human-caused disturbances." Carturan, who studies resilience, biodiversity and complex systems under UBCO Professors Lael Parrott
and Jason Pither, says nearly all the world's reefs will be dangerously affected by 2050 if no effective measures are taken.

There is hope, however, as he has determined a way to examine the reefs
and explore why some reef ecosystems appear to be more resilient than
others.

Uncovering why, he says, could help stem the losses.

"In other ecosystems, including forests and wetlands, experiments
have shown that diversity is key to resilience," says Carturan. "With
more species, comes a greater variety of form and function -- what
ecologists call traits. And with this, there is a greater likelihood
that some particular traits, or combination of traits, help the ecosystem better withstand and bounce back from disturbances." The importance of diversity for the health and stability of ecosystems has been extensively investigated by ecologists, he explains. While the consensus is that
ecosystems with more diversity are more resilient and function better,
the hypothesis has rarely been tested experimentally with corals.



========================================================================== Using an experiment to recreate the conditions found in real coral
reefs is challenging for several reasons -- one being that the required
size, timeframe and number of different samples and replicates are
just unmanageable.

That's where computer simulation modelling comes in.

"Technically called an 'agent-based model', it can be thought of as
a virtual experimental arena that enables us to manipulate species
and different types of disturbances, and then examine their different influences on resilience in ways that are just not feasible in real
reefs," explains Carturan.

In his simulation arena, individual coral colonies and algae grow,
compete with one another, reproduce and die. And they do all this in
realistic ways. By using agent-based models -- with data collected by
many researchers over decades -- scientists can manipulate the initial diversity of corals, including their number and identity, and see how
the virtual reef communities respond to threats.

"This is crucial because these traits are the building blocks that give
rise to ecosystem structure and function. For instance, corals come in
a variety of forms -- from simple spheres to complex branching -- and
this influences the variety of fish species these reefs host, and their susceptibility to disturbances such as cyclones and coral bleaching."
By running simulations over and over again, the model can identify
combinations that can provide the greatest resilience. This will help ecologists design reef management and restoration strategies using
predictions from the model, says collaborating Flinders researcher
Professor Corey Bradshaw.



========================================================================== "Sophisticated models like ours will be useful for coral-reef management
around the world," Bradshaw adds. "For example, Australia's iconic
Great Barrier Reef is in deep trouble from invasive species, climate change-driven mass bleaching and overfishing." "This high-resolution
coral 'video game' allows us to peek into the future to make the best
possible decisions and avoid catastrophes." The research, supported
by grants from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of
Canada and the Canada Foundation for Innovation, was published recently
in eLife.


========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by University_of_British_Columbia_Okanagan_campus. Note: Content may be
edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Bruno Sylvain Carturan, Jason Pither, Jean-Philippe Mare'chal,
Corey J.

A. Bradshaw, Lael Parrott. Combining agent-based, trait-based and
demographic approaches to model coral-community dynamics. eLife,
2020; 9 DOI: 10.7554/eLife.55993 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200825113607.htm

--- up 1 day, 6 hours, 50 minutes
* Origin: -=> Castle Rock BBS <=- Now Husky HPT Powered! (1337:3/111)