How fish stocks will change in warming seas

Date:
August 10, 2020
Source:
University of Exeter
Summary:
New research out today highlights the future effects of climate
change on important fish stocks for south-west UK fisheries.



FULL STORY ==========================================================================
New research out today highlights the future effects of climate change
on important fish stocks for south-west UK fisheries.


==========================================================================
The study, which generated future projections of climate impacts on fish
in a rapidly warming sea region, suggests changes in the availability and catchability of commercially important Atlantic fish species including
Atlantic cod, Dover sole, monkfish and lemon sole. This could have
implications for fisheries management, and future fish diets of the
British public.

The Celtic Sea, English Channel and southern North Sea have experienced significant warming over the past 40 years and further increases in sea temperatures are expected over the coming decades. Projecting future
changes can help prepare the fishing industry and management systems
for resulting ecological, social and economic effects.

The study involved researchers from the University of Exeter, the
University of Bristol, the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and
Aquaculture Science (Cefas) and the Met Office Hadley Centre. They used computer models to look at how fish abundances may alter by 2090 under
a range of future climates. This provided opportunities to not only
understand future trends, but how these trends might differ depending
on the amount of warming in these seas.

Main findings from the study include:
* Projections suggest increases in abundance of warm-adapted
species red
mullet, Dover sole, John dory and lemon sole, and decreases in
abundance of cold-adapted species Atlantic cod, monkfish and megrim.

* These changes will challenge current fisheries management systems,
with
implications for decisions on future fishing mortality rates,
fishing effort and allowable catches. For example, declining
species may need further measures to reduce their vulnerability
to further warming temperatures.

* Increasingly flexible and adaptive management approaches are
required
that reduce climate impacts on fish species while also facilitating
industry adaptation.

Importantly, the results indicate implications not only for the wider
ecosystem (e.g. predator prey dynamics or community composition) but
that the fishing industry and management systems will likely have to
adjust their operations to address these changes. British consumers may
need to also adapt their diets into the future to eat species that could benefit under future warming, such as the warm-water species red mullet,
Dover sole, john dory and squid.

Lead author Dr Katherine Maltby, who undertook the research while at
Cefas, said: "Our results show that climate change will continue to
affect fish stocks within this sea region into the future, presenting both potential risks but some opportunities that fishers will likely have to
adapt to. Consumers can help fishers take advantage of these fishing opportunities by seeking out other fish species to eat and enjoy."
Co-author Louise Rutterford, from University of Exeter, said: "We know
from working with fishers that warmer water species are appearing in
catches more.

Bringing together their 'on-the-ground' experiences with studies like
ours will help inform future management decisions that enable sustainable exploitation while supporting fishers' adaptation."

========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by University_of_Exeter. Note: Content
may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Katherine M. Maltby, Louise A. Rutterford, Jonathan Tinker,
Martin J.

Genner, Stephen D. Simpson. Projected impacts of warming seas on
commercially fished species at a biogeographic boundary of the
European continental shelf. Journal of Applied Ecology, 2020; DOI:
10.1111/1365- 2664.13724 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200810103258.htm

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