Past evidence supports complete loss of Arctic sea-ice by 2035

Date:
August 10, 2020
Source:
British Antarctic Survey
Summary:
A new study supports predictions that the Arctic could be free of
sea ice by 2035.



FULL STORY ==========================================================================
A new study, published this week in the journal Nature Climate Change,
supports predictions that the Arctic could be free of sea ice by 2035.


==========================================================================
High temperatures in the Arctic during the last interglacial --
the warm period around 127,000 years ago -- have puzzled scientists
for decades. Now the UK Met Office's Hadley Centre climate model has
enabled an international team of researchers to compare Arctic sea ice conditions during the last interglacial with present day. Their findings
are important for improving predictions of future sea ice change.

During spring and early summer, shallow pools of water form on the surface
of Arctic sea-ice. These 'melt ponds' are important for how much sunlight
is absorbed by the ice and how much is reflected back into space. The new Hadley Centre model is the UK's most advanced physical representation
of the Earth's climate and a critical tool for climate research and incorporates sea-ice and melt ponds.

Using the model to look at Arctic sea ice during the last interglacial,
the team concludes that the impact of intense springtime sunshine created
many melt ponds, which played a crucial role in sea-ice melt. A simulation
of the future using the same model indicates that the Arctic may become
sea ice-free by 2035.

Joint lead author Dr Maria Vittoria Guarino, Earth System Modeller at
British Antarctic Survey (BAS), says: "High temperatures in the Arctic
have puzzled scientists for decades.

Unravelling this mystery was technically and scientifically
challenging. For the first time, we can begin to see how the Arctic
became sea ice-free during the last interglacial. The advances made in
climate modelling means that we can create a more accurate simulation of
the Earth's past climate, which, in turn gives us greater confidence in
model predictions for the future." Dr Louise Sime, the group head of
the Palaeoclimate group and joint lead author at BAS, says: "We know
the Arctic is undergoing significant changes as our planet warms. By understanding what happened during Earth's last warm period we are in
a better position to understand what will happen in the future. The
prospect of loss of sea-ice by 2035 should really be focussing all our
minds on achieving a low- carbon world as soon as humanly feasible."
Dr David Schroeder and Prof Danny Feltham from the University of Reading,
who developed and co-led the implementation of the melt pond scheme in
the climate model, say: "This shows just how important sea-ice processes
like melt ponds are in the Arctic, and why it is crucial that they
are incorporated into climate models." The work is funded by NERC,
grant number NE/P013279/1 and is part of the TiPES project, which has
received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and
innovation programme.


========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by British_Antarctic_Survey. Note:
Content may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, David Schro"eder, Irene
Malmierca-Vallet, Erica Rosenblum, Mark Ringer, Jeff Ridley,
Danny Feltham, Cecilia Bitz, Eric J. Steig, Eric Wolff, Julienne
Stroeve, Alistair Sellar. Sea-ice-free Arctic during the Last
Interglacial supports fast future loss. Nature Climate Change,
2020; DOI: 10.1038/ s41558-020-0865-2 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200810113216.htm

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