COVID recovery choices shape future climate

Date:
August 7, 2020
Source:
University of Leeds
Summary:
A new study warns that even with some lockdown measures staying in
place to the end of 2021, without more structural interventions
global temperatures will only be roughly 0.01DEGC lower than
expected by 2030.

However, the study estimates that including climate policy measures
as part of an economic recovery plan with strong green stimulus
could prevent more than half of additional warming expected by
2050 under current policies.



FULL STORY ==========================================================================
A post-lockdown economic recovery plan that incorporates and emphasises climate-friendly choices could help significantly in the battle against
global warming, according to a new study.


==========================================================================
This is despite the sudden reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and
air pollutants during lockdown having a negligible impact on holding
down global temperature change.

The researchers warn that even with some lockdown measures staying in
place to the end of 2021, without more structural interventions global temperatures will only be roughly 0.01DEGC lower than expected by 2030.

However, the international study, led by the University of Leeds,
estimates that including climate policy measures as part of an economic recovery plan with strong green stimulus could prevent more than half
of additional warming expected by 2050 under current policies.

This would provide a good chance of global temperatures staying below the
Paris Agreement's aspirational 1.5?C global warming limit and avoiding
the risks and severe impacts that higher temperatures will bring.

Piers Forster began working with his daughter, Harriet, after her
A levels were cancelled. They analysed the newly accessible global
mobility data from Google and Apple. They calculated how 10 different greenhouse gases and air pollutants changed between February and June
2020 in 123 countries. They then brought in a wider team to help with
the detailed analysis.



==========================================================================
The team's findings, published today in Nature Climate Change, detail how despite carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and other emissions
falling by between 10-30% globally, through the massive behavioural
shifts seen during lockdown, there will be only a tiny impact on the
climate, mainly because the decrease in emissions from confinement
measures is temporary.

The researchers also modelled options for post-lockdown recovery,
showing that the current situation provides a unique opportunity to
implement a structural economic change that could help us move towards
a more resilient, net-zero emissions future.

Study lead author Professor Piers Forster, director of the Priestley International Centre for Climate at Leeds and Principal Investigator of
the CONSTRAIN consortium, said: "The choices made now could give us a
strong chance of avoiding 0.3?C of additional warming by mid-century,
halving the expected warming under current policies. This could mean
the difference between success and failure when it comes to avoiding
dangerous climate change.

"The study also highlights the opportunities in lowering traffic
pollution by encouraging low emissions vehicles, public transport and
cycle lanes. The better air quality will immediately have important
health effects -- and it will immediately start cooling the climate."
Study co-author Harriet Forster, who has just completed her studies at
Queen Margaret's School, said: "Our paper shows that the actual effect
of lockdown on the climate is small. The important thing to recognise
is that we've been given a massive opportunity to boost the economy by investing in green industries - - and this can make a huge difference
to our future climate.



==========================================================================
"I'm going to London next month to study art but I also did chemistry
at A- level so was glad to use what I learned in my chemistry classes
to do something useful." Study co-author Corinne Le Que're' from the University of East Anglia said: "The fall in emissions we experienced
during COVID-19 is temporary and therefore it will do nothing to slow
down climate change, but the Government responses could be a turning
point if they focus on a green recovery, helping to avoid severe impacts
from climate change." Study co-author Joeri Rogelj from the Grantham
Institute -- Climate Change and the Environment at Imperial College
London said: "Both sobering and hopeful, the flash crash in global
emissions due to lockdown measures will have no measurable impact on
global temperatures by 2030; but the decisions we make this year about
how to recover from this crisis can put us on a solid track to meet the
Paris Agreement. Out of this tragedy comes an opportunity, but unless it
is seized a more polluting next decade is not excluded." Study co-author Matthew Gidden from Climate Analytics, Berlin said: "The lasting effect of COVID-19 on climate will not depend on what happens during the crisis,
but what comes after. "Stimulus focused on green recovery and low-
carbon investment can provide the economic kick start needed while
putting the world on track to meet climate pledges." Study co-author
Professor Mathew Evans. From Wolfson Atmospheric Chemistry Laboratories, University of York and the National Centre for Atmospheric Science said:
"The analysis of air quality observations from around the world showed us
that the emissions reductions captured by Google and Apple's mobility data
were pretty close to those actually being experienced." Study co-author Christoph Keller from Goddard Earth Sciences, Technology and Research
(GESTAR) based in the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO)
at NASA GSFC said: "The decrease in human activity in the wake of the
COVID-19 pandemic has created a unique opportunity to better quantify
the human impact on atmospheric air pollution.

"Near real-time analysis of observations, mobility data, and NASA model simulations offers quantitative insights into the impact of COVID-19 containment measures on air pollution. This study demonstrates how such information can help to advance our understanding of the complicated interactions between air quality and climate."

========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by University_of_Leeds. Note: Content
may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Piers M. Forster, Harriet I. Forster, Mat J. Evans, Matthew
J. Gidden,
Chris D. Jones, Christoph A. Keller, Robin D. Lamboll, Corinne
Le Que're', Joeri Rogelj, Deborah Rosen, Carl-Friedrich
Schleussner, Thomas B. Richardson, Christopher J. Smith,
Steven T. Turnock. Current and future global climate impacts
resulting from COVID-19. Nature Climate Change, 2020; DOI:
10.1038/s41558-020-0883-0 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200807093756.htm

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