Future climate changes in nature reserves
Tropical nature reserves to be particularly affected

Date:
October 2, 2020
Source:
Universita"t Bayreuth
Summary:
The Earth's nature reserves are set to be affected by future climate
change in very different ways. Detailed local knowledge of climate
change impacts can therefore make a significant contribution to
the management of protected areas and the preservation of their
ecological function. A study draws attention to this fact. It is
based on climate forecasts for more than 130,000 nature reserves
worldwide.



FULL STORY ==========================================================================
The Earth's nature reserves are the basis for the preservation of global biodiversity. They are set to be affected by future climate change in
very different ways. Detailed local knowledge of climate change impacts
can therefore make a significant contribution to the management of
protected areas and the preservation of their ecological function. A biogeographic study by the University of Bayreuth in the journal
"Diversity and Distributions" draws attention to this fact. It is based
on climate forecasts for more than 130,000 nature reserves worldwide.


==========================================================================
For their new study, Prof. Dr. Carl Beierkuhnlein and Dr. Samuel
Hoffmann of the Biogeography research group examined a total of 137,735
nature reserves on six continents. Their focus was on the question of
what deviations from current climate conditions these areas will be
exposed to over the next five decades, and how this will impact local
plant and animal species. "Blanket forecasts on climate change are not
specific enough to assist in counteracting the threat of further loss
of biodiversity. This can only succeed if we know exactly what local
climate change -- for example in nature reserves -- will be caused by
global trends. As our study impressively demonstrates, these local effects
can be very different, even in neighbouring areas," says Beierkuhnlein.

Particularly severe local climate changes are expected by 2070,
especially in protected areas of tropical countries. Today, these are of
great importance for the conservation of globally endangered plant and
animal species, and are under great pressure because, at the same time,
they are being used intensively by humans. These protected areas are
located in mountains high above sea level. In mountains, temperatures are expected to rise noticeably as a result of climate change. Consequently,
some endangered species will probably try to migrate to higher and
therefore cooler mountain regions. Here, the threat to individual species
could increase rapidly because fewer resources are available at higher altitudes. "For migratory species, higher mountain regions could prove
to be a dead end," Hoffmann explains.

However, the new study also shows that protected areas in which future
climate conditions will differ especially from the present have some characteristics that could have a beneficial effect on the conservation
of species. They are often very large, have very different landscape
profiles, and therefore offer diverse environmental conditions which are
little affected by direct human intervention or fragmented by traffic
routes. These circumstances favour the adaptation of species, for example through genetic exchange and greater availability of resources. In
addition, some species that are forced to leave their current habitats
due to climate change may find new habitats in their very neighbourhood
thanks to this diversity of landscape. Hence, management that is well
informed about local climate changes can help to mitigate the effects
of climate change in nature reserves.

Forecasts of global climate change are always fraught with
uncertainty. This is why the Bayreuth researchers worked with ten
different global models of climate change in their study of nature
reserves. In addition, they included two significantly different scenarios
of global greenhouse gas emissions in their assessments. In each of the
nature reserves studied, small square areas measuring around one square kilometre were examined. Characteristic properties of these "cells"
were then put into relation with climatic change to be expected on a
global scale by 2070. These characteristics include, for example, height
above sea level, landscape profile, precipitation and temperature, local
flora and fauna, and human intervention. With these investigations, the Bayreuth researchers have succeeded in estimating local climate change
effects for very small areas worldwide.


========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by Universita"t_Bayreuth. Note: Content
may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Samuel Hoffmann, Carl Beierkuhnlein. Climate change exposure and
vulnerability of the global protected area estate from an
international perspective. Diversity and Distributions, 2020;
DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13136 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/10/201002122103.htm

--- up 5 weeks, 4 days, 6 hours, 50 minutes
* Origin: -=> Castle Rock BBS <=- Now Husky HPT Powered! (1337:3/111)