Plastic flow into ocean expected to triple by 2040, action could stem
tide more than 80%
Research lays out viable pathway to 'break the plastic wave'

Date:
July 23, 2020
Source:
Pew Charitable Trusts
Summary:
A new analysis finds that without immediate and sustained action,
the annual flow of plastic into the ocean could nearly triple by
2040. The study also identifies solutions that could cut this
volume by more than 80% using technologies available today, if
key decision-makers make system-wide changes.



FULL STORY ==========================================================================
A new analysis by The Pew Charitable Trusts and SYSTEMIQ finds that
without immediate and sustained action, the annual flow of plastic into
the ocean could nearly triple by 2040. But the study also identifies
solutions that could cut this volume by more than 80 per cent using technologies that are available today, if key decision-makers are willing
to make system-wide changes.


==========================================================================
The findings from the scientific analysis were released today in a report, "Breaking the Plastic Wave: A Comprehensive Assessment of Pathways
Towards Stopping Ocean Plastic Pollution." The release coincides with
the July 23 publication of the technical underpinnings of the report in
an article in the journal Science, "Evaluating Scenarios Toward Zero
Plastic Pollution." The research found that if no action is taken to
address the projected growth in plastic production and consumption,
the amount of plastic entering the ocean each year would grow from 11
million metric tons to 29 million metric tons over the next 20 years, equivalent to nearly 50 kilograms (110 pounds) of plastic on each metre of coastline worldwide. Because plastic remains in the ocean for hundreds of
years and may never truly biodegrade, the cumulative amount of plastic
in the ocean by 2040 could reach 600 million tons -- equivalent in
weight to more than 3 million blue whales. And COVID-19 has presented additional challenges in the fight to end ocean-bound plastic pollution,
as single-use plastic consumption has increased during the pandemic,
according to the International Solid Waste Association.

Working with scientists and experts around the world, Pew and SYSTEMIQ
reached the report's conclusions using a first-of-its-kind economic model
that quantifies the flow and amount of plastic in the global system
and compares the quantity of ocean plastic pollution between 2016 and
2040 under six scenarios: from no change from the projected rising flow
of plastic into the ocean (noted in the report as "business-as-usual")
to a total overhaul (called the "system change scenario") of the world's plastics system, including its production, collection, consumption, and disposal/recycling. The model quantifies the associated cost, climate,
and employment implications of each scenario.

Although progress has been made in addressing the global plastic
challenge, the report finds that current commitments by government and
industry will reduce the amount of plastic flowing into the ocean only
by 7 per cent by 2040. And without meaningful change, about 4 billion
people worldwide are likely to be without organized waste collection
services by 2040, contributing significantly to the projected amount of
ocean plastic pollution; closing this gap would require connecting more
than 500,000 people to collection services per day until 2040.

"Breaking the Plastic Wave" identifies eight measures that together
could reduce by 2040 about 80 per cent of the plastic pollution
that flows into the ocean annually, using technology and solutions
available today. Among them are reducing growth in plastic production
and consumption, substituting some plastics with alternatives such as
paper and compostable materials, designing products and packaging for recycling, expanding waste collection rates in middle- and low-income countries, increasing recycling, and reducing plastic waste exports. In addition to improving ocean health, adopting the changes outlined in the
report could generate savings of USD$70 billion for governments by 2040, relative to business-as-usual; reduce projected annual plastic-related greenhouse gas emissions by 25 per cent; and create 700,000 jobs.

While the system change scenario reduces annual ocean plastic pollution
rates by more than 80 per cent, it will take an unprecedented level
of action and will still leave more than 5 million metric tons leaking
into the ocean each year in 2040. Fully eliminating the flow of ocean
plastic pollution will require dramatically increasing innovation and investment, with significant technological advances, new business models,
and a greater emphasis on research and development.

"There's no single solution to ocean plastic pollution, but through
rapid and concerted action we can break the plastic wave," said Tom
Dillon, Pew's vice president for environment. "As this report shows,
we can invest in a future of reduced waste, better health outcomes,
greater job creation, and a cleaner and more resilient environment for
both people and nature." Plastic pollution presents a unique challenge
for producers and users of virgin, or new, plastics given regulatory
changes, such as bans on single-use plastic items, and growing consumer
concern about the impact of plastic waste in the environment. But it is
also a unique opportunity for providers of new and existing materials
and industries that use circular business models and reuse and refill
systems, which are designed to keep products and materials in use for
as long as possible.

"Our results indicate that the plastic crisis is solvable. It took a
generation to create this challenge; this report shows we can solve
it in one generation," said Martin Stuchtey, SYSTEMIQ's founder and
managing partner. "'Breaking the Plastic Wave' leaves no viable excuse
on the table; we have today all the solutions required to stem plastic
flows by more than 80 per cent. What we now need is the industry and
government resolve to do so."

========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by Pew_Charitable_Trusts. Note: Content
may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Winnie W. Y. Lau, Yonathan Shiran, Richard M. Bailey, Ed Cook,
Martin R.

Stuchtey, Julia Koskella, Costas A. Velis, Linda Godfrey,
Julien Boucher, Margaret B. Murphy, Richard C. Thompson, Emilia
Jankowska, Arturo Castillo Castillo, Toby D. Pilditch, Ben Dixon,
Laura Koerselman, Edward Kosior, Enzo Favoino, Jutta Gutberlet,
Sarah Baulch, Meera E. Atreya, David Fischer, Kevin K. He, Milan
M. Petit, U. Rashid Sumaila, Emily Neil, Mark V. Bernhofen, Keith
Lawrence, James E. Palardy. Evaluating scenarios toward zero plastic
pollution. Science, 2020; eaba9475 DOI: 10.1126/science.aba9475 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200723203945.htm

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