Predicting influenza epidemics

Date:
October 15, 2020
Source:
Linko"ping University
Summary:
Researchers have developed a unique method to predict influenza
epidemics by combining several sources of data. The forecasts
can be used, for example, when planning healthcare provision,
such that resources can be redistributed in the best possible
manner and give everyone the best possible care during an epidemic.



FULL STORY ========================================================================== Researchers at Linko"ping University, Sweden, have developed a unique
method to predict influenza epidemics by combining several sources of
data. The forecasts can be used, for example, when planning healthcare provision, such that resources can be redistributed in the best possible
manner and give everyone the best possible care during an epidemic.


==========================================================================
"Our method predicts influenza epidemics by using data from real
episodes of care and consultations about influenza symptoms with the
Swedish Healthcare Direct (1177). The various sources of data are used to forecast different phases of an epidemic, which makes our study unique,"
says Armin Spreco, doctor of medicine at the Department of Health,
Medicine and Caring Sciences at Linko"ping University, and specialist
in epidemiology and statistics at Region O"stergo"tland. He is principal
author of the article in which the study is presented.

The study has been published in Emerging Infectious Diseases, and focusses
on upper respiratory tract infections, comparing three large medical care regions: Stockholm, West Gothia, and Scania, for the ten-year-period from January 2008 to February 2019. The method developed by the researchers
gave accurate forecasts and satisfactory results for all influenza
seasons, under stable conditions.

It would have been essentially impossible to predict, for example, the
peak of an influenza epidemic, if the researchers had looked only at
admissions or visits to primary care. Such a forecast has now been made possible by including extra sources of data that precede the peak by
several weeks. Calls made by county residents to the Swedish Healthcare
Direct, for example, have proved to be useful to predict when a peak in influenza infections will occur.

Another conclusion of the study is that care should be taken when using forecasting in periods of social unrest. When the population behaves
or moves around in unusual patterns, infection can spread in unexpected directions, which can have a negative impact on the forecasts.

The research group started its research on forecasting for different types
of virus epidemics and pandemics as early as 2005, during the outbreak
of avian influenza. Swedish legislation specifies that it must be able
to reconfigure the public sphere, such as, for example, the medical
care system, for emergency tasks. The regions have a responsibility in
this respect.

"During the second decade of the new millennium, we started to prepare
the information systems used in our medical care region, such that routine
data can be used for this type of analysis. We have been able to use our experiences from working with skilled statisticians and technical experts
at Region O"stergo"tland and in this way ensure that other databases in
Sweden have prepared for the analyses needed for emergency purposes,"
says Toomas Timpka, professor in the Department of Health, Medicine and
Caring Sciences at Linko"ping University, and consulting physician in
Region O"stergo"tland. He has led the study now being presented.

This is one of the reasons that Armin Spreco has been able to spend the
past ten years analysing data from these databases. The data harvesting
does not disturb either the care systems or the healthcare personnel,
since it takes place in the administrative part of the databases, and the
data extracted are completely anonymous, which is one of the strengths
of the study.

In addition to being useful during influenza epidemics, the method can be extremely useful during the ongoing corona pandemic, which is a typical
example of social unrest. The method has been used during the first wave
of the pandemic in several Swedish regions and will be used in the event
of a second wave.

The research has been funded by grants from the Swedish Civil
Contingencies Agency (MSB) and the Swedish Research Council.


========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by Linko"ping_University. Original
written by Hanna Agardh.

Note: Content may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Armin Spreco, Olle Eriksson, O"rjan Dahlstro"m, Benjamin John
Cowling,
Matthew Biggerstaff, Gunnar Ljunggren, Anna Jo"ud, Emanuel Istefan,
Toomas Timpka. Nowcasting (Short-Term Forecasting) of Influenza
Epidemics in Local Settings, Sweden, 2008-2019. Emerging Infectious
Diseases, 2020; 26 (11) DOI: 10.3201/eid2611.200448 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/10/201015101805.htm

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