Climate change will decimate Palm Springs, Coachella Valley tourism


Date:
September 8, 2020
Source:
University of California - Riverside
Summary:
A new study finds that climate change will have a devastating
effect on the greater Palm Springs area's dominant industry --
tourism. Due to climate change, the number of days above 85 degrees
between November and April is projected to increase up to 150%
by the end of the century.



FULL STORY ==========================================================================
A new UC Riverside study finds that climate change will have a devastating effect on the greater Palm Springs area's dominant industry -- tourism.


========================================================================== Thousands known as "snowbirds" flock to the region annually from
elsewhere in the country to escape freezing winters. However, due to
climate change, the number of days above 85 degrees between November and
April is projected to increase by up to 150% by the end of the century.

These changes are enough to prevent many from patronizing the area's
famous outdoor attractions and events such as the annual Coachella Valley
Music Festival, according to the study published this week in the journal Climatic Change.

Many businesses in the Palm Springs area already close due to lack of
customers during the hot summer months, when daytime high temperatures
average up to 108 degrees in July and August. Employment follows these patterns, with regional employment declining by 7.2 percent between
April and October in 2017.

The researchers modeled two different future climate scenarios -- one
in which heat-trapping gases are significantly reduced, resulting in
slowed warming, and one in which emissions are not mitigated at all.

"The two scenarios differed a little by mid-century, but were very
different by 2100," said Francesca Hopkins, assistant professor of climate change and sustainability. "In both cases we saw big declines in the
number of days suitable for snowbirds, but this was much more pronounced
in the scenario with no emissions reductions." In order to assess future effects of increased heat, the researchers analyzed two key components of
the local tourism industry in addition to the winter weather: the number
of visitors to The Living Desert Zoo and Gardens, a popular outdoor zoo,
and the likelihood of extreme heat at the Coachella music festival.



==========================================================================
The Living Desert, established 50 years ago, is a nonprofit zoo visited
by more than 510,000 people last year. The research team found that
it stands to lose up to $1.44 million annually in tourism in today's
dollars with 18 percent fewer visitors at the end of the century.

Similarly, heat is also projected to impact the annual Coachella
music festival, which began in 1999, and attracts roughly 250,000
concertgoers. The researchers did not assume that increased heat will necessarily affect attendance. However, they did find that probability
of attendee exposure to extreme heat -- if it continues to be held in
April -- could increase six-fold by end of century if climate change
goes unmitigated.

"Though other studies have focused on the impact that climate change
will have on cold winter destinations popular for sports like skiing,
this is one of the first to focus on a warm winter destination, and its
impact on such a specific region," Hopkins said.

Places like the Coachella Valley are especially vulnerable to the impacts
of climate change because they cannot shift snowbird season to cooler
times of year, since those don't exist, Hopkins explained.

Cindy Yan~ez, a UCR physics graduate and first author of the study, was
born in the Coachella Valley, and has lived there most of her life. Many
people in the area have jobs that require them to work outdoors, either
in agriculture or tourism. She wonders whether there will be a climate
breaking point that might cause locals like these to move away.

"Weather is a resource that draws in money just like other resources
do. If that gets redistributed it could have severe impacts on peoples'
lives both physically and economically," Yan~ez said. "I am hoping this research will start a conversation in the community. We still have time
to avoid the worst of these predictions if we can reduce our greenhouse
gas emissions today."

========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by
University_of_California_-_Riverside. Original written by Jules
Bernstein. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Cindy C. Yan~ez, Francesca M. Hopkins, William C. Porter. Projected
impacts of climate change on tourism in the Coachella Valley,
California.

Climatic Change, 2020; DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02843-x ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/09/200908113322.htm

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