New mathematical method shows how climate change led to fall of ancient civilization
Researcher applies method to Indus Valley Civilization

Date:
September 3, 2020
Source:
Rochester Institute of Technology
Summary:
A researcher developed a mathematical method that shows climate
change likely caused the rise and fall of an ancient civilization. A
new article outlines the technique he developed and shows how
shifting monsoon patterns led to the demise of the Indus Valley
Civilization, a Bronze Age civilization contemporary to Mesopotamia
and ancient Egypt.



FULL STORY ==========================================================================
A Rochester Institute of Technology researcher developed a mathematical
method that shows climate change likely caused the rise and fall of an
ancient civilization. In an article recently featured in the journal
Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Nishant Malik, assistant professor in RIT's School of Mathematical Sciences, outlined the
new technique he developed and showed how shifting monsoon patterns led
to the demise of the Indus Valley Civilization, a Bronze Age civilization contemporary to Mesopotamia and ancient Egypt.


========================================================================== Malik developed a method to study paleoclimate time series, sets of data
that tell us about past climates using indirect observations. For example,
by measuring the presence of a particular isotope in stalagmites from a
cave in South Asia, scientists were able to develop a record of monsoon rainfall in the region for the past 5,700 years. But as Malik notes,
studying paleoclimate time series poses several problems that make it challenging to analyze them with mathematical tools typically used to understand climate.

"Usually the data we get when analyzing paleoclimate is a short time
series with noise and uncertainty in it," said Malik. "As far as
mathematics and climate is concerned, the tool we use very often in understanding climate and weather is dynamical systems. But dynamical
systems theory is harder to apply to paleoclimate data. This new method
can find transitions in the most challenging time series, including paleoclimate, which are short, have some amount of uncertainty and have
noise in them." There are several theories about why the Indus Valley Civilization declined - - including invasion by nomadic Indo-Aryans
and earthquakes -- but climate change appears to be the most likely
scenario. But until Malik applied his hybrid approach -- rooted in
dynamical systems but also draws on methods from the fields of machine
learning and information theory -- there was no mathematical proof. His analysis showed there was a major shift in monsoon patterns just before
the dawn of this civilization and that the pattern reversed course right
before it declined, indicating it was in fact climate change that caused
the fall.

Malik said he hopes the method will allow scientists to develop more
automated methods of finding transitions in paleoclimate data and leads
to additional important historical discoveries. The full text of the study
is published in Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science.


========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by
Rochester_Institute_of_Technology. Original written by Luke Auburn. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Nishant Malik. Uncovering transitions in paleoclimate time series
and the
climate driven demise of an ancient civilization. Chaos: An
Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 2020; 30 (8):
083108 DOI: 10.1063/5.0012059 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/09/200903105605.htm

--- up 1 week, 3 days, 6 hours, 50 minutes
* Origin: -=> Castle Rock BBS <=- Now Husky HPT Powered! (1337:3/111)