Some but not all US metro areas could grow all needed food locally,
estimates study
Researchers estimate potential for locally sourced food based on land
needs for different diets

Date:
September 14, 2020
Source:
Tufts University, Health Sciences Campus
Summary:
How local could food be in the U.S.? A modeling study estimates
the distance within which metro centers could meet food needs
if they tried to feed themselves locally. Some -- but not all --
could rely on nearby agricultural land, and dietary changes would
increase local potential, according to the study.



FULL STORY ==========================================================================
Some but not all U.S. metro areas could grow all the food they need
locally, according to a new study estimating the degree to which the
American food supply could be localized based on population, geography,
and diet.


==========================================================================
The modeling study, led by Christian Peters at the Gerald J. and
Dorothy R.

Friedman School of Nutrition Science and PolicyGerald J. and Dorothy R.

Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy at Tufts University,
is published today in Environmental Science & Technology.

The model estimates whether 378 metropolitan areas could meet their food
needs from local agricultural land located within 250 kilometers (155
miles). Local potential was estimated based on seven different diets,
including the current typical American diet.

The results suggest:
* * Metro centers in the Northwest and interior of the country
have the
greatest potential for localization.

* Large portions of the population along the Eastern Seaboard and
the southwest corner of the U.S. would have the least potential
for localization.

* Surplus land existed under all diet scenarios, raising questions
about the best use of land for meeting health, environmental,
and economic goals.

"Not everyone lives near enough agricultural land to have an entirely
local or even regional food supply. Most cities along the Eastern Seaboard
and in the southwest corner of the U.S. could not meet their food needs locally, even if every available acre of agricultural land was used for
local food production.

Yet, many cities in the rest of the country are surrounded by ample land
to support local and regional food systems," said Peters, senior author
and associate professor at the Friedman School, whose research focuses
on sustainability science.

Peters and his team also modeled seven different diets to estimate whether dietary changes could make a difference in the potential to produce
sufficient food for a metro area. The diets ranged from the current
typical American diet, which is high in meat, to vegan. Reducing animal products in the diet increased the potential to produce all food locally,
up to a point. Diets with less than half the current consumption of meat supported similar levels of localization potential, whether omnivore
or vegetarian. Consumption of meat (beef, pork, chicken and turkey)
for the baseline typical American diet was estimated at roughly five
ounces per day.

"There would be different ways to do it. Imagine, if we cut back to fewer
than two and a half ounces per day by serving smaller portions of meat
and replacing some meat-centric entrees with plant-based alternatives,
like lentils, beans and nuts. More diverse sources of protein could open
new possibilities for local food. Nutrition research tells us that there
could be some health benefits, too," said corresponding author Julie
Kurtz, who was a master's degree student at the Friedman School at the
time of the study.

Under all the diet scenarios, the model projected the United States
having a surplus of land for meeting domestic food needs. In the current American agricultural system, some farmland is used for biofuels and
export crops. The researchers point out that if metro centers focused on
eating locally, many agricultural areas would face new questions about
local land use priorities.

"It would be important to make sure policies for supporting local or
regional food production benefit conservation and create opportunities
for farmers to adopt more sustainable practices. Policies should also
recognize the capacity of the natural resources in a given locale or
region -- and consider the supply chain, including capacity for food
processing and storage," Peters said.

Economic efficiency for food production was beyond the scope of the
analysis.

Also, the study is based on current conditions and does not consider
how future climate change may affect future agricultural potential.


========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by
Tufts_University,_Health_Sciences_Campus. Note: Content may be edited
for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Julie E. Kurtz, Peter B. Woodbury, Zia U. Ahmed, Christian
J. Peters.

Mapping U.S. Food System Localization Potential: The Impact of
Diet on Foodsheds. Environmental Science & Technology, 2020; DOI:
10.1021/ acs.est.9b07582 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/09/200914095857.htm

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