WTXS21 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98S)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300321ZJAN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW
300330)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.5S 124.4E TO 20.0S 119.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.5S 124.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.5S 125.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5S 124.2E, APPROXIMATELY
114 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 300838Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 98S WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-
30 HOURS AND DEVELOP QUICKLY ONCE OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
311500Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 148.2E.//
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WTXS21 PGTW 250330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5S 107.8E TO 14.3S 98.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.7S 106.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 110.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 106.9E, APPROXIMATELY
712 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 242118Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION.
STRONG OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (<15KTS) AND WARM (29-30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST 98S WILL TRACK
WESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260330Z.//
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WTXS21 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0S 65.2E TO 10.3S 68.8E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 270830Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 65.6E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.9S 64.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 65.6E, APPROXIMATELY 439
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF A MASS OF CONVECTION THAT HAS
EXHIBITED PULSING BURSTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS DISPLACED WEST OF
THE LLCC AS A RESULT OF 10-15 KTS OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE. HOWEVER, A
270533Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS A COMPACT CIRCULATION THAT HAS SEEN
ITS RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND CONTRACT SUBSTANTIALLY TO AROUND 20 NM
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH A BAND OF 30 KT WINDS ENCOMPASSING
THE ENTIRE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. HEALTHY UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
OBSERVED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT NORTHEAST. INVEST 98S IS LOCATED IN
A MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND
29C AND LIGHT-MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA INDICATE A BAND OF DRY AIR
LOCATED ABOUT 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION AT PRESENT. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE
MIXED OPINIONS ON DEVELOPMENT, WITH MOST SHOWING ONLY SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OF 98S IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER, MOST MODELS
DEPICT 98S WITH A BROADER AND WEAKER CIRCULATION THAN IS BEING
OBSERVED, SUGGESTING THAT DEVELOPMENT CHANCES ARE HIGHER. INVEST 98S
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN TURN EASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WESTERLY WIND BAND TO ITS NORTH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280900Z.//
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WTXS21 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98S) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270851ZMAR21//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9S 68.0E TO 8.7S 72.1E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 280830Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 68.3E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.4S 66.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 68.3E, APPROXIMATELY 356
NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A RAGGED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH HAS PULSED IN DISORGANIZED FASHION DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS, AND HAS DEGRADED IN PRESENTATION. THE LLC REMAINS
DECOUPLED FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO ITS SOUTHWEST DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KTS, WHICH IS NOW
INCREASING DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WEST OF
THE MALDIVES. A 280419Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATES THAT THE VORTEX IS
LESS STOUT THAN 24 HOURS AGO, WITH THE MAX WIND BAND NO LONGER
WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE. OVERALL, THE SYSTEM'S ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AND BECOMING LESS HOSPITABLE, DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING VWS AND A DRYING AIR MASS TO THE NORTH OF
THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION INTO A SHORT-LIVED SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR TERM DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF
THE VORTEX AND WARM UNDERLYING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29C.
INVEST 98S IS EXPECTED TO SOON TURN EASTWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD,
TOWARD THE VICINITY OF DIEGO GARCIA, FOLLOWING THE BELT OF STRONG
LOW TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
BROAD CIRCULATION WEST OF THE MALDIVES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290900Z.//
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