AXAU01 APRF 301431
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1431 UTC 30/01/2021
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 18.4S
Longitude: 124.0E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [226 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 20 knots [35 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A overland
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 30/1800: 18.8S 123.2E: 040 [080]: 020 [035]: 1003
+12: 31/0000: 19.1S 122.4E: 055 [100]: 025 [045]: 999
+18: 31/0600: 19.4S 121.6E: 060 [115]: 030 [055]: 998
+24: 31/1200: 19.5S 120.8E: 070 [130]: 035 [065]: 994
+36: 01/0000: 19.7S 119.0E: 080 [150]: 045 [085]: 987
+48: 01/1200: 20.1S 117.0E: 100 [185]: 055 [100]: 980
+60: 02/0000: 20.7S 115.1E: 115 [210]: 060 [110]: 976
+72: 02/1200: 21.5S 113.7E: 125 [235]: 065 [120]: 970
+96: 03/1200: 21.8S 112.0E: 160 [300]: 065 [120]: 969
+120: 04/1200: 22.2S 110.7E: 190 [350]: 060 [110]: 973
REMARKS:
Despite being over land, the low exhibits a well organised structure evident in the patterns of deep convection that has persisted in the past 24-48h. Pressure falls have been on the order of 2.5hPa/24h in the vicinity.

The forecast remains finely balanced as reflected in the range of model scenarios. Should the system maintain a southwest track it will remain overland and not develop into a tropical cyclone, however a subtle change to a more west southwest track will see it move off the west Kimberley coast later on Sunday and thereby access the warm waters [SST >30C] off the northwest coast. Given other environmental influences [low wind shear and abundant tropical moist inflow], there is the potential for the system to quickly reach TC intensity
nd
this scenario is reflected in the offical forecast. Models are consistent in a general west southwest track parallel to the coastline in the 24-72h, with the offshore scenario allowing for further development.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 30/1930 UTC.
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