WTPS21 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6S 170.3E TO 15.6S 174.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 281200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7S 171.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.6S 169.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 171.1E, APPROXIMATELY
202NM NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281025Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96P WILL
TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
291500Z.
//
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