WTIO30 FMEE 161248
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/7/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7

2.A POSITION 2021/01/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6 S / 65.2 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 250 NW: 195

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): NIL
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/17 00 UTC: 12.7 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 155 SW: 315 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75

24H: 2021/01/17 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 155 SW: 315 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75

36H: 2021/01/18 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 155 SW: 315 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75

48H: 2021/01/18 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SW: 315 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75

60H: 2021/01/19 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 315 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/01/19 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 315 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/20 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 155 SW: 315 NW: 75

120H: 2021/01/21 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0-

IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED. THE
LAST VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A BETTER DEFINED CENTER AND AN INCREASE IN
CURVATURE IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS WEST OF THE LOW LEVELS CIRCULATION.
IN THE LACK OF RECENT OBJECTIVE ELEMENTS, THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30
KT.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MIXED.
THE LOW LEVELS CONVERGENCE ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE WILL IMPROVE,
HOWEVER THE EASTERLY SHEAR WILL REMAIN OMNIPRESENT WITH A MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE THAT WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
CIRCULATION.
THE UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE REMAINS PRESENT IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT.
IN THIS CONTEXT, A SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED.
THE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS INTENSITY PREDICTION IS LOW.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID SUBTROPICAL LOW RIDGE WHICH
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ISLANDS UNTIL MONDAY. AT THE END OF
THIS PERIOD, A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO NEAR THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR,
AND CAUSES A WEAKNESS IN THE ANTICYCLONIC BELT. THE TRACK THEN TAKES
AN INFLECTION IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO
LAND ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT LANDFALL BUT
THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF STRONG WINDS, FLOODS AND STORM SURGE
OVER SOME COASTAL AREAS OF EAST MADAGASCAR MAINLY BETWEEN SAMBAVA TO
THE NORTH AND TAMATAVE TO THE SOUTH.
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