Mesoscale Discussion 0008
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025
Areas affected...southeast Kansas...much of southern Missouri...far
southern Illinois and western Kentucky
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 051356Z - 051800Z
SUMMARY...A combination of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will
become mostly rain by late morning.
DISCUSSION...13Z surface analysis shows a 1004 mb surface low in
eastern Oklahoma with strong high pressure across the northern
Plains and Great Lakes region. Northeasterly surface winds resulting
from this pressure gradient continue to supply low-level arctic air
to areas north of the warm front from Kansas to the Lower Ohio
Valley. Strong 850mb warm air advection has resulted in a thermal
profile favorable for freezing rain across a broad region from
southeast Kansas and across much of southern Missouri early this
morning. The 0C 850mb line will continue to slowly shift north as
strong warm air advection occurs ahead of the surface cyclone. This
will result in snow changing to freezing rain in the next few hours
across parts of southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Areas across
southern Missouri where temperatures are currently near freezing
will likely rise above freezing this morning and bring an end to the
freezing rain threat. However, for much of the area currently
observing freezing rain, the threat will persist through at least midday.