WTIO30 FMEE 250638
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 39/7/20202021
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/25 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 25.7 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/25 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 24.4 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2021/01/26 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 23.0 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
ELOISE CONTINUES TO TRACK INLAND AND IS NOW ARRIVING NEAR THE BORDER
BETWEEN BOTSWANA AND SOUTH AFRICA. CONVECTION REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE
NEAR A RATHER WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. CIRCULATION SEEM TO
HAVE BEGAN TO ELONGATE ON THE LAST SAT IMAGES.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST : THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ON A
GLOBALLY WESTWARD TRACK STEERED BY THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF SOUTH AFRICA. THEREAFTER,
ELOISE SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF BOTSWANA, WHILE
SLIGHTLY DRIFTING SOUTH ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

ALTHOUGH IN A WEAKENED STATE, ELOISE STILL BRINGS HEAVY RAINFALL ON
IS TRACK. THIS RISK CONCERNS DIRECTLY BOTSWANA DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF
THE REMAINS OF ELOISE UNTIL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE NORTH-EASTERN
PARTS OF SOUTH AFRICA, ESWATINI AND SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE WILL ALSO BE
AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO TUESDAY, AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
FROM THE SOUTH AND COULD INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE
OVERLAND DEPRESSION. 100MM ARE TO BE EXPECTED OVER 2 TO 3 DAYS AND
LOCALLY 200 TO 300MM ARE POSSIBLE.

THE INHABITANTS OF THESE COUNTRIES ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN POUR THIS SYSTEM.
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