AWUS01 KWNH 251934
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-260003-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0012
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
233 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

Areas affected...Southern Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251933Z - 260003Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will be capable
of producing hourly totals up to 1" with totals through early
evening up to 2-2.5". This rain falling over some areas that have
already picked up 1-2" (locally higher) since early this morning
could cause additional runoff and flooding problems, particularly
for portions of southern/south-central Kentucky.

Discussion...Low pressure analyzed over northwest Arkansas
recently with its wavy boundary/warm front now situated near the
KY/TN state line as of 18Z. Waves of overrunning moderate to
embedded heavy rain have been ongoing since this morning where
12-hour estimated QPF shows widespread 1-2" totals with some
localized amounts near 3" for portions of southwest KY.

Through 00Z, the warm front over Tennessee should lift further
north into southern/south-central Kentucky ahead of the
approaching low and cold front passage, allowing for a brief wedge
of better instability (RAP suggests upwards of 500 to perhaps 750
J/kg by 22Z) to accompany the expected showers and thunderstorms
aided by a persistent low level jet of 50-60 kts at 850 mb. The
much above normal moisture in place (PWs 1 to 1.3 inches) and
sufficient low level convergence will provide the necessary
forcing and moisture.

There is fairly good agreement in the latest hi-res guidance with
the most recent runs of the HRRR performing well with the totals
so far. Stripes of higher totals across central Kentucky are
expected through 00Z with totals of 1-1.5" likely coming from
hourly totals 0.5-0.75" at times, supported by the 12Z HREF.

The most recent MRMS QPE to FFG ratios are approaching 1 mainly
south of the KY Parkways across western/central Kentucky while
areas around Hopkinsville are currently between 1-1.3. Soil
saturation is up to 85-95 percent across much of the area. As
such, if the additional rain does line up over areas saturated
from this morning, then further runoff/flooding problems will
develop, especially across southwest into south-central Kentucky.

Taylor


ATTN...WFO...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37608517 37198492 36708645 36618728 36438857
37148861 37528719
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