WTIO30 FMEE 241803
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 37/7/20202021
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/24 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.8 S / 28.9 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/25 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 26.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2021/01/25 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 24.2 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2021/01/26 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 23.3 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2021/01/26 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 22.5 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT,
DISSIPATING

60H: 2021/01/27 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 22.4 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT,
DISSIPATING


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
ELOISE CONTINUES TO TRACK INLAND. THE CENTER IS NOW LOCATED IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH AFRICA. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT AS STRONG
AS BEFORE BUT STILL MAINTAINS NEAR THE CENTER, ESPECIALLY AS A CURVED
BAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST : THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK STEERED BY THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF SOUTH AFRICA. THEREAFTER,
ELOISE SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF BOTSWANA, WHILE
SLIGHTLY DRIFTING SOUTH ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

ALTHOUGH IN A WEAKENED STATE, ELOISE STILL BRINGS HEAVY RAINFALL ON
IS TRACK. THIS RISK CONCERNS DIRECTLY BOTSWANA DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF
THE REMAINS OF ELOISE FROM TOMORROW UP TO TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE
NORTH-EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH AFRICA, ESWATINI AND SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE
WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO TUESDAY, AS A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH AND INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE OVERLAND DEPRESSION. 100MM ARE TO BE EXPECTED OVER 2 TO 3 DAYS
AND LOCALLY 200 TO 300MM ARE POSSIBLE.

THE INHABITANTS OF THESE COUNTRIES ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
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