WTIO30 FMEE 220620
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/11/20202021
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 (EX-GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/22 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 35.9 S / 48.8 E
(THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 43 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 465 SW: 465 NW: 555
34 KT NE: 370 SE: 185 SW: 335 NW: 335
48 KT NE: 220 SE: 0 SW: 90 NW: 185

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): NIL
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/22 18 UTC: 42.0 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 000 ,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H: 2021/02/23 06 UTC: 50.0 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 000 ,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING MICROWAVE DATA
(SSMI/S AT 0054Z, GMI AT 0126Z) HAVE DISPLAYED A POORLY ORGANIZED AND ASYMMETRICAL INNER CORE, CONFIRMING THE POST-TROPICAL STATUS OF THE
SYSTEM. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT DUE TO NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.

EX-GUAMBE KEEPS ACCELERATING UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE
DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH-WEST. IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE
WITH THE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM BY TOMORROW. MEANWHILE, THE LOW IS RAPIDLY
LOSING ITS TROPICAL FEATURES WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT (UPPER JET GETTING CLOSER).

LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED VIA
MARINE ADVISORY FQIO20.
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