WTIO30 FMEE 211858
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/11/20202021
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 (EX-GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/21 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 32.3 S / 41.5 E
(THIRTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 25 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 280 SW: 315 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/22 06 UTC: 35.8 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 675 SW: 490 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 520 SW: 345 NW: 280
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 165 NW: 110

24H: 2021/02/22 18 UTC: 42.0 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 490
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 685 SW: 715 NW: 280





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE SYSTEM ABRUPTLY ACCELERATED
SOUTH-EASTWARD AND SHOW SIGNS OF THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. UNDERGOING A MODERATE TO STORNG NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR, THE
INNER CORE WAS PARTIALLY VISIBLE AND LOOKING LESS SYMMETRICAL. THIS
IS CINFIRMED BY 1736Z ASCAT SWATH WHICH HOWEVER SUGGEST AN INCREASE
OF THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO DECREASE WITH WARMING TOPS CONSEQUENTLY TO
THE COLDER WATERS BENEATH. THEREFORE INTENSITY WAS UPGRADED TO 55KT
BU THE SYSTEME IS CLASSIFIED AS EX-GUAMBE POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

EX-GUAMBE ACCELERATED UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP MID
LATITUDES TROUGH AT ITS SOUHT-WEST. IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE
LATER BY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, THE LOW IS RAPIDLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL
FEATURES WITH A INCREASINGLY BAROMETRIC ENVIRONMENT (UPPER JET
GETTING CLOSER).
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