• Pacific: TS Dujuan R16

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Feb 21 02:08:00 2021
    WTPQ30 RJTD 201800
    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    REASONING NO.16 FOR TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
    1.GENERAL COMMENTS
    TS DUJUAN IS LOCATED AT 8.1N, 129.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
    PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
    ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
    DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
    OUTFLOW AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
    INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
    INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS
    DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
    2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
    PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
    CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC.
    3.TRACK FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
    MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
    BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
    AGREEMENT.
    4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
    INTERACTION WITH LAND AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
    INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
    OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
    =
    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)