WTPZ42 KNHC 310837
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
300 AM MDT Mon May 31 2021

Despite its reasonably good satellite presentation, overnight
satellite-derived wind data indicate that Two-E remains a tropical
depression. Multiple ASCAT passes show Ten-E has a broad circulation
with a low-level center that remains displaced southeast of the main
region of deep convection. Although recent satellite imagery does
show a new convective burst occurring near the estimated center
position, the cyclone's lack of improved vertical structure combined
with scatterometer winds near 25 kt suggest it has yet to
strengthen. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at a possibly
generous 30 kt, which is consistent with the T2.0/30 kt subjective
Dvorak classification received from TAFB.

The estimated motion, 290/12 kt, is again slightly faster than the
previous advisory. The guidance indicates the depression should
maintain a west-northwestward heading during the next couple of days
as it moves around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge.
The system is expected to gradually slow down as a weakness develops
in the ridge, and this is when increased spread is noted in the
global models. The GFS and ECMWF lie on opposite extremes of the
guidance envelope beyond 72 hours, with the ECWMF showing a faster
westward motion while the GFS takes the system slowly poleward. The
latest NHC forecast track remains close to the corrected-consensus
aid HCCA through this period of increased uncertainty.

High oceanic heat content, very low vertical wind shear, and a moist
mid-level environment should support strengthening during the next
24 hours or so, before increasing vertical wind shear becomes a
limiting factor. The ECMWF suggests this could occur earlier than
previously forecast, which is reflected in the latest intensity
guidance that trends weaker. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast
is adjusted downward from the previous advisory beyond 24 hours, but
still lies on the high end of the guidance envelope and above the
HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. It is noted that the HWRF and HMON
depict more significant strengthening during the next 24 hours,
which cannot be completely ruled out given the very favorable
near-term conditions. Beyond day 3, cooler sea-surface temperatures
and a drier mid-level environment should induce a steady weakening
trend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 12.2N 106.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 12.9N 108.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 13.6N 109.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 14.2N 110.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 14.7N 111.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 15.1N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 15.3N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 15.4N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 15.8N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
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