WTIO31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 20.8N 71.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 71.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 22.5N 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 24.4N 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 26.2N 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 71.4E.
17MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
140 NM NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 01A HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WITH A 20NM EYE FEATURE, SURROUNDED BY A
SOLID RING OF COLD CLOUD TOPS IN THE BD ENHANCEMENT. THE SYSTEM WAS
IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE SHORELINE AT THE 171800Z HOUR, VERY
NEAR TO JAFARABAD, INDIA. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 20NM EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE,
REFLECTING THE IMPROVED INFRARED SIGNATURE, COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND
WARMER EYE TEMPERATURE. MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS) FROM PGTW, T5.5 (102 KTS) FROM DEMS, AND
AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T6.0, LEND ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE, WITH LOW (10-
15 KTS) VWS AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS OVER
LAND HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND RAPIDLY INCREASING VWS AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
IN THE GULF OF KHAMBAHT THROUGH TAU 12 EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM ITSELF
WILL BE CENTERED WELL INLAND. TC 01A IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36 AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ARAVALLI
MOUNTAINS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z
IS 38 FEET.//
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