ACUS11 KWNS 171900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171900
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-172200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0110
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

Areas affected...northern Mississippi through middle Tennessee and
far southern Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 171900Z - 172200Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to locally heavy snow continues to spread
northeastward into the discussion area from the southwest. 1" per
hour rates will gradually become increasingly likely over the course
of the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Heavier reflectivities are beginning to appear in radar
mosaic imagery from bear Oxford, MS to southwest of Nashville, TN
over the past hour. The precipitation itself is likely tied to
isentropic lift across upstream areas of Arkansas/Louisiana where
50-60 kt low-level flow continues to impinge on a shallow
sub-freezing airmass. The precipitation itself is outpacing most
model guidance, and with low-level moistening occurring beneath the precipitation shield, areas of moderate to occasionally heavy snow
should begin across the discussion area over the next 1-2 hours or
so. Snow should be the be dominant precip type, though point
forecast soundings indicate enough of a warm layer aloft to support
occasional mixing with sleet at times.

..Cook.. 02/17/2021

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON 35728931 36328805 36698681 36998548 36878467 36028475
35068578 34378752 34048888 34208979 34629011 35068978
35728931
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ACUS11 KWNS 181851
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181851
TXZ000-182145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0123
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 PM CST Thu Feb 18 2021

Areas affected...southern Val Verde ...Kinney...and Uvalde counties
in Texas

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 181851Z - 182145Z

SUMMARY...A narrow band of heavy snow continues across southern Val
Verde, Kinney, and Uvalde counties in Texas. This band will
gradually weaken through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A band of heavy snow has become narrower, but heavy
snowfall rates remain within this corridor from Del Rio, Texas
eastward. Snowfall rates as high as 3 inches per hour have been
reported in Del Rio this morning. Frontogenesis has started to
weaken across the area, which is likely responsible for the
narrowing corridor of the heaviest snow rates. As frontogenesis
continues to weaken, snowfall rates will continue to lower, but 1+
inch per hour snowfall rates could persist through mid to late
afternoon beneath the heaviest portions of the band. The heaviest
snowfall rates will likely remain near Del Rio where significant
snowfall totals have already been reported.

..Bentley.. 02/18/2021

ATTN...WFO...EWX...

LAT...LON 29540126 29610096 29550029 29549999 29429976 29279974
29149986 29080018 29100044 29200073 29220095 29260103
29540126
$$
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ACUS11 KWNS 150104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150104
TXZ000-150700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0082
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

Areas affected...Portions of Texas Hill Country into Southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 150104Z - 150700Z

SUMMARY...Pockets of moderate to heavy snow are possible in parts of
the DFW metro and eastward in the short term. The next area of heavy
snow to develop will likely be within the Edwards Plateau perhaps by
8-10 PM CST. This heavy snow will develop eastward into Southeast
Texas through the evening and overnight.

DISCUSSION...Current water vapor imagery shows another area of
mid-level ascent moving through the Big Bend region. This ascent is
forecast to pivot through the base of the broad upper-level trough
as it moves east. MRMS radar imagery shows heavier bands of
precipitation developing in Mexico that should begin to move into
the Edwards Plateau within the next 1-3 hours. 1 inch per hour
snowfall rates are possible as the favorable lift within the
dendritic growth layer moves through the region.

A band of moderate to heavy snow now moving east through the DFW
metro area will continue to bring around 1 inch per hour rates.
However, this is expected to decrease with time as the more
favorable synoptic ascent shifts to the south.

..Wendt.. 02/15/2021

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 29310099 29760093 30140079 30769962 31429820 31989708
32019670 31799599 31089549 30539554 29999663 29099846
28729991 28850060 29190093 29310099
$$
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ACUS11 KWNS 151645
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151644
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-152245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0088
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

Areas affected...southeastern Missouri...northern/western
Kentucky...southern Illinois...much of Indiana...southwestern Ohio

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 151644Z - 152245Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow near the Mississippi River will spread
northeastward across much of the discussion area over the next 3-6
hours. Accumulations of 1-2 inches per hour are possible in heavier
bands. A few areas of sleet may also mix in with the snow across
Kentucky.

DISCUSSION...Lift associated with an approaching mid-level wave over
Oklahoma has resulted in a broad area of moderate to heavy
precipitation from eastern Arkansas/western Tennessee southward to
the central Gulf Coast. Much of the precipitation has fallen as
heavy snow, though sleet has mixed in with the precipitation across
western Tennessee at times. Additional bands of precipitation are
developing in southern Illinois and southeastern Missouri currently,
where recent METARs indicate heavy snow in Carbondale, IL; St.
Louis, MO; and Poplar Bluff, MO. This snow has developed roughly
1-2 hours faster than this morning's 12Z model guidance.

With broad-scale lift approaching the discussion area, the
expectation is that snowfall rates will continue to intensify as the
expanding precipitation shield moves northeastward across the
discussion area. Areas of 1-2 inch/hour snow rates are expected in
heavier bands. Model forecast soundings across Kentucky indicate a
warm layer between H7-85 that may allow for sleet to occasionally
mix in with snow across Kentucky.

..Cook.. 02/15/2021

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 37989043 37429056 37019010 36888883 36788750 36878658
37568584 38728419 39408335 40378329 40768462 40798682
39278964 37989043
$$
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