WTIO31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 15.9N 72.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 72.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.4N 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.0N 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.5N 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 21.8N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 25.0N 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 72.6E.
16MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 626
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A 14NM EYE NOW FORMING AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
BECOMES MORE COMPACT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED EYE FEATURE AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM GOA, INDIA. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND PLACED
IN LINE WITH THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.0/90KTS AND HEDGED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DEMS T4.5/77KTS, THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
(ADT) OF T4.7/82KTS AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) ESTIMATE OF
78KTS. THIS INCREASE IN INTENSITY REFLECTS THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT IS
BEGINNING TO OCCUR DUE TO A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ANALYSIS
INDICATES ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS), AND WARM (31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE. TC 01A WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU
36 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, FUELED BY THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 24.
AFTERWARD, IT WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWARD AND ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN VERAVAL AND MAHUVA, INDIA, SHORTLY
AFTER TAUS 36. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION. AFTER LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU
72, POSSIBLY SOONER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TIGHTENED IN
AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD, NOW ONLY 68NM AT TAU 36
AND INCREASES TO A MERE MAXIMUM OF 193NM THROUGH TAU 72. TRACK
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH UP TO TAU 48, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD
AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE OVERLAND. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND A BIT FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AFTER TAU 36 IN ANTICIPATION OF A MORE INTENSE CYCLONE THAN WHAT
CONW SUGGESTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 31
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z, AND 170900Z.//
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