• Pacific-NW: I91W Formatio

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Tue Feb 16 23:43:00 2021
    WTPN21 PGTW 161400
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91W)//
    RMKS/
    1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
    130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.3N 135.0E TO 7.9N 131.0E
    WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
    ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
    WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
    IMAGERY AT 161200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
    NEAR 7.4N 134.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
    2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
    NEAR 7.3N 135.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 134.7E, APPROXIMATELY 15
    NM EAST OF BABELTHUAP, PALAU, FSM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
    SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 160927Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT
    FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO AN OBSCURED LOW
    LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). INVEST 91W IS IN A FAVORABLE
    ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL
    WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
    SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
    91W WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
    MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
    POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
    WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
    3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
    171400Z.//
    NNNN
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