ACUS11 KWNS 032212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032212
TXZ000-NMZ000-032345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0502
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0512 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern NM into west TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 132...

Valid 032212Z - 032345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 132
continues.

SUMMARY...The environment remains favorable large hail as storms
move eastward this afternoon. Some of the hail may be very large (2+
inches in diameter) in west Texas. Isolated severe wind gusts may
also occur.

DISCUSSION...A severe supercell in Terry County TX with a pronounced
TBSS per KLBB radar will likely remain capable of producing large to
perhaps very large hail in the short term as it moves eastward
towards Lynn County. Other convection has also developed along and
north of a cold front across parts of southeastern NM and west TX.
Even though this activity will likely remain slightly elevated in a post-frontal regime, adequate low-level moisture behind the front,
moderate mid-level flow, and a long, straight hodograph in forecast
soundings through the mid/upper levels will likely continue to
support organized severe storms. The greatest threat for large hail
will likely focus across parts of west TX in association with the
ongoing severe supercell. The airmass downstream is characterized by
1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE and the presence of somewhat steepened
mid-level lapse rates. Large to very large (1 to 2+ inch) hail
should remain the primary severe threat in the short term. But, with
steep low-level lapse rates also present just behind the cold front,
isolated severe wind gusts may also occur.

..Gleason.. 05/03/2021

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 33600394 33620244 33430114 32960076 32510073 32480178
33040368 33400415 33600394
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ACUS11 KWNS 032216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032215
ILZ000-MOZ000-032345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0503
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0515 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

Areas affected...portions of eastern Missouri into central Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 131...

Valid 032215Z - 032345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 131
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to continue across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 131 through the remainder of the afternoon. Large
hail and damaging winds are expected to be the primary threats, but
a tornado is also possible, particularly with any supercell
structures.

DISCUSSION...Organized linear segments and a discrete supercell have
matured across northern and central portions of Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 131 over the past couple of hours. A couple of severe
hail/damaging gust reports have recently been received with the more
discrete convection across west-central IL. Here, temperatures have
been able to warm into the mid to upper 70s, with mid 60s F
dewpoints contributing to MLCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg. While mid
to upper tropospheric flow is not particularly strong, modest
veering with height is contributing to 35+ kts of effective bulk
shear, supporting updraft organization. The severe threat is
expected to remain locally higher with the more discrete storms
across central IL, where instability is more robust relative to
points farther north. Low-level shear is weak across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 131 overall, but given some directional shear in
the boundary layer, a tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly with
any supercell structures.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 05/03/2021

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 38498907 38229046 38379199 40449091 40999056 41168998
41168913 41028879 40528785 39998774 39338810 38748861
38498907
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