AWUS01 KWNH 021154
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-021545-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0140...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
753 AM EDT Sun May 02 2021

Corrected for TYPO

Areas affected...Southeastern LA...Southern MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021145Z - 021545Z

Summary...Conditions are expected to remain favorable for showers
and thunderstorm ,with locally intense rainfall rates, to continue
over the next few hours. These storms may produce localized
runoff concerns, especially across urbanized areas.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms continue to fall this
morning along an axis of ample moisture and instability associated
with deep southerly winds ahead of an approaching area of low
pressure. Latest mesoanalysis shows PWS over 1.75 inches, with
MUCAPEs at or above 1000 J/kg along the Louisiana coast into
southeastern Louisiana. KLIX radar shows a fair progressive line
of storms, with impressive rainfall rates moving east across
southeastern Louisiana. Radar estimates showed rainfall rates of
over 2 in/hr within the core of the stronger storms as they moved
across Baton Rouge this morning. It is expected that conditions
will remain favorable for these locally intense amounts to
continue as storms move farther east into the New Orleans metro
over the next few hours. The latest RAP guidance shows both PWs
and instability increasing across southeastern Louisiana into
southern Mississippi through the morning. While these storms are
fairly progressive, their intense rainfall rates may pose
short-term runoff concerns, especially across urbanized areas. In
addition to this initial area of convection, there is model
indication that convection currently developing over the northern
Gulf of Mexico may propagate southwest to northeast over this same
area later this morning, adding additional locally heavy amounts.
Overall, the recent hi-res guidance, including the latest runs
of the HRRR, do not appear to have a very good handle on either
the placement or intensity of the ongoing convection. While this
may limit confidence in the details, do believe there is good
potential for additional amounts of 1-2 inches, with locally
heavier, to occur quickly occur over the next few hours within the
highlighted area.

Pereir

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 31928983 31798894 30788876 30288936 29598972
29419027 29439086 30139094 30919118 31589059
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