WTXS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 7.9S 40.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.9S 40.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 7.4S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 7.0S 37.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 7.8S 40.3E.
24APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103
NM SOUTHEAST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS
FLARED UP OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, REFORMING OVER AND JUST EAST OF
THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CENTER (LLC), INDICATIVE OF A SLIGHT
RELAXATION IN THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF WEAK LOW
LEVEL BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT IN A 240343Z SSMIS COLOR ENHANCED
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE, BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS)
FROM BOTH PGTW AND FMEE. TC JOBO IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED LOW TO MID-
LEVEL STR. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE, WITH LOW (10-
15KT) VWS, AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SSTS. THE MAIN HINDRANCE TO ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS THE PRESENCE OF A
REGION OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE WEST, PROHIBITING THE RECENT
FLARING CONVECTION FROM EXPANDING AND PERSISTING. JOBO IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF DAR ES SALAAM WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM, BEFORE MOVING RAPIDLY INLAND AND
QUICKLY DISSIPATING. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT
242100Z.//
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